877  
FXUS61 KBGM 170001  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
701 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING,  
BRINGING A FLASH FREEZE, STRONG WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW  
SHOWERS. THE SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE  
REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW AND HIGH WINDS LIKELY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AN AREA OF SNOW HAS ROTATED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY  
INTO PA AND NOW OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE WIND  
INCOMING AS WELL A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH NEAR  
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. RAISED QPF AND POPS A BIT WITH THE EARLY  
EVENING UPDATE FOR THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK INCH OR SO OF  
SNOWFALL. A FLASH FREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT DISCUSSED  
BELOW.  
 
345 PM UPDATE...  
 
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO  
EAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. THIS FRONT WILL  
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO ANY WET SURFACES WILL QUICKLY  
FREEZING INTO ICE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA  
EXCEPT WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE IN  
EFFECT. BEHIND THE FRONT, WESTERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE,  
WITH DAMAGING GUSTS DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING. THE STRONG,  
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT  
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND  
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AREAWIDE THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY EVENING.  
 
ALSO, LATER TONIGHT, AS COLD AIR PLOWS INTO THE REGION, LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER CNY,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US-20. AS THE WINDS PICK UP,  
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW  
ARE EXPECTED. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BECOMES MORE CONCENTRATED  
AND INTENSE ON MONDAY AS THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION WITH LAKE  
SUPERIOR, HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY COMMENCES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA  
COUNTIES STARTING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. ONONDAGA AND MADISON'S  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,  
WHEN THE LAKE SNOW BAND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH, JUST OUT OF  
THESE TWO COUNTIES....MEANWHILE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL  
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ONEIDA COUNTY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
NIGHT. THE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE NEAR ZERO  
VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE IN WIDE OPEN AREAS WHERE THE SNOW CAN EASILY BE LIFTED.  
 
TOMORROW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND STRONG  
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE  
MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SYRACUSE  
METRO AREA IN THE MORNING, EXTENDING EASTWARD TO OR JUST SOUTH  
OF UTICA. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN BAND ADDITION SHOWERS AND SQUALLS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS NORTH  
ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA, MADISON AND CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY BY  
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STAYED CLOSE TO THE CMCREG, AS  
IT DID AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOCATION WITH  
THIS LAST EVENT. THE BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO  
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. INSIDE THIS LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW BAND, SNOWFALL RATES 2-4"/HR ARE POSSIBLE...AND  
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH,  
PRODUCING BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES AS  
MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS IS SOMETHING WE ARE MONITORING CLOSELY  
AND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SNOW INTENSITY AND STRONG WINDS  
COMBINING TOGETHER FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD AND IF IT BECOMES  
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH, THEN BLIZZARD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
325 PM UPDATE...  
 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS -21C WESTERLY FLOW WILL  
SUPPORT A BAND EXTENDING ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA  
COUNTIES. THIS BAND WILL BE PART OF A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION THAT  
EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE SUPERIOR. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL  
DROP SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY AND PUSH THIS BAND SOUTH. AS THE TROUGH  
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FLOW BECOMES MORE  
NORTHWESTERLY AND THE MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WILL BE CUT OFF. THIS  
WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION  
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. A  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON  
WEDNESDAY. WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION, THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL  
DISSIPATE AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM  
MOVES IN. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 10  
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER  
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S BOTH DAYS.  
LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SINGLE  
DIGITS. CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY FROM TUESDAY MORNING  
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY THOUGH WINDS  
WILL BECOME GRADUALLY CALMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH  
STRONG WINDS PRESENT, WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO FOR THE  
MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
325 PM UPDATE...  
 
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS  
WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW UP THE EAST COAST AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO  
MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES DELMARVA THURSDAY  
MORNING, IT BEGINS TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA LEADING TO A LESS FAVORABLE  
TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR OUR REGION. STILL, SOME LIGHT  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FOLLOWING  
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CNY. POPS WERE ADDED  
TO THE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF CANADIAN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE  
NBM. THE WEEKEND BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A  
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH SOME HAVING LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS,  
BUT THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE DRIER SOLUTION OF THE NBM.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 30S  
FOR HIGHS RETURNING BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT WARM UP AS  
MUCH AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANGING  
BACK TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY 2Z WITH  
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTING ACROSS CNY. SYR AND RME WILL  
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT BUT THE BAND  
WILL BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED THOUGH ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL  
BLOW AROUND HELPING TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES. TOMORROW, THE LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW BECOMES MUCH MORE ORGANIZED AND MAY IMPACT SYR AND  
RME. EXACT LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WITH WINDS CHANGING  
DIRECTION, EACH TERMINAL WILL AT LEAST BE IMPACTED BY IT FOR A  
FEW HOURS. SYR HAS A BETTER CHANCE IN THE MORNING AND RME WILL  
BE TOWARDS EVENING. AIRPORT MINIMUM CONDITIONS ARE GUARANTEED  
UNDER THE BAND WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME. BLOWING SNOW  
ALSO LIKELY AT THESE TWO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40  
KNOTS AT TIMES ON MONDAY BEFORE DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
THURSDAY...MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (50% CONFIDENCE) WITH  
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.  
 
FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY (70% CONFIDENCE)  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-  
047-048-072.  
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-  
037.  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-015-016-022>024.  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-  
037.  
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ017-018-025-036-  
037-044>046-055>057-062.  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ018-036.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MPK  
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM/MWG  
SHORT TERM...BTL  
LONG TERM...BTL  
AVIATION...AJG/MJM  
 
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