112
FXUS61 KBGM 170621
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
121 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FLASH
FREEZE, STRONG WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE SURGE OF
VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND HIGH WINDS
EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF SNOW HAS ROTATED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO PA AND NOW OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE WIND
INCOMING AS WELL A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. RAISED QPF AND POPS A BIT WITH THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE FOR THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK INCH OR SO OF
SNOWFALL. A FLASH FREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT DISCUSSED
BELOW.
345 PM UPDATE...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO ANY WET SURFACES WILL QUICKLY
FREEZING INTO ICE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
EXCEPT WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE IN
EFFECT. BEHIND THE FRONT, WESTERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE,
WITH DAMAGING GUSTS DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING. THE STRONG,
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AREAWIDE THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY EVENING.
ALSO, LATER TONIGHT, AS COLD AIR PLOWS INTO THE REGION, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER CNY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US-20. AS THE WINDS PICK UP,
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ARE EXPECTED. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BECOMES MORE CONCENTRATED
AND INTENSE ON MONDAY AS THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR, HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY COMMENCES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA
COUNTIES STARTING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. ONONDAGA AND MADISON'S
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WHEN THE LAKE SNOW BAND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH, JUST OUT OF
THESE TWO COUNTIES....MEANWHILE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ONEIDA COUNTY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN WIDE OPEN AREAS WHERE THE SNOW CAN EASILY BE LIFTED.
TOMORROW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND STRONG
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SYRACUSE
METRO AREA IN THE MORNING, EXTENDING EASTWARD TO OR JUST SOUTH
OF UTICA. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN BAND ADDITION SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA, MADISON AND CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STAYED CLOSE TO THE CMCREG, AS
IT DID AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOCATION WITH
THIS LAST EVENT. THE BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. INSIDE THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND, SNOWFALL RATES 2-4"/HR ARE POSSIBLE...AND
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH,
PRODUCING BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS IS SOMETHING WE ARE MONITORING CLOSELY
AND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SNOW INTENSITY AND STRONG WINDS
COMBINING TOGETHER FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD AND IF IT BECOMES
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH, THEN BLIZZARD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
325 PM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS -21C WESTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A BAND EXTENDING ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA
COUNTIES. THIS BAND WILL BE PART OF A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION THAT
EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE SUPERIOR. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY AND PUSH THIS BAND SOUTH. AS THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND THE MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WILL BE CUT OFF. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION, THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S BOTH DAYS.
LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS. CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY THOUGH WINDS
WILL BECOME GRADUALLY CALMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
STRONG WINDS PRESENT, WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
325 PM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW UP THE EAST COAST AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES DELMARVA THURSDAY
MORNING, IT BEGINS TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA LEADING TO A LESS FAVORABLE
TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR OUR REGION. STILL, SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FOLLOWING
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CNY. POPS WERE ADDED
TO THE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF CANADIAN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE
NBM. THE WEEKEND BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH SOME HAVING LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS,
BUT THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE DRIER SOLUTION OF THE NBM.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 30S
FOR HIGHS RETURNING BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT WARM UP AS
MUCH AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
110 AM UPDATE
OCCASIONAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF NE PA. THIS
COULD BRING TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT ELM, ITH AND BGM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERHAPS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AT ITH.
AVP LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR FOR NOW, BUT BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AND LINGER THOUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. STEADIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS IN PLACE
AT SYR AND RME WITH IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 19Z AT SYR, AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT RME.
OCCASIONAL HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE TWO SITES;
AND TEMPOS WERE ADDED TO ATTEMPT TO TIME OUT SOME OF THIS
HEAVIER SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITY. AIRPORT MINIMUM CONDITIONS
ARE BASICALLY GUARANTEED UNDER THE BAND WITH THE STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY SNOW.
ALL OTHER SITES BESIDE RME AND SYR ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40
KTS THROUGH THE DAY, PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD BE BRIEFLY HIGHER.
THE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE EVENING HOURS
OUTLOOK...
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME. BLOWING SNOW
ALSO LIKELY AT THESE TWO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30-35
KNOTS AT TIMES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THURSDAY...MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (60% CONFIDENCE) WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS (40% CONFIDENCE).
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-015-016-
022>024.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
037.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ017-018-
025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ018-036.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...AJG/MJM
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