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FXUS61 KBGM 170847
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
347 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FLASH
FREEZE, STRONG WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE SURGE OF
VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND HIGH WINDS
EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF SNOW HAS ROTATED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO PA AND NOW OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE WIND
INCOMING AS WELL A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. RAISED QPF AND POPS A BIT WITH THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE FOR THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK INCH OR SO OF
SNOWFALL. A FLASH FREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT DISCUSSED
BELOW.
345 PM UPDATE...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO ANY WET SURFACES WILL QUICKLY
FREEZING INTO ICE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
EXCEPT WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE IN
EFFECT. BEHIND THE FRONT, WESTERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE,
WITH DAMAGING GUSTS DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING. THE STRONG,
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AREAWIDE THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY EVENING.
ALSO, LATER TONIGHT, AS COLD AIR PLOWS INTO THE REGION, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER CNY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US-20. AS THE WINDS PICK UP,
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ARE EXPECTED. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BECOMES MORE CONCENTRATED
AND INTENSE ON MONDAY AS THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR, HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY COMMENCES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA
COUNTIES STARTING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. ONONDAGA AND MADISON'S
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WHEN THE LAKE SNOW BAND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH, JUST OUT OF
THESE TWO COUNTIES....MEANWHILE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ONEIDA COUNTY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN WIDE OPEN AREAS WHERE THE SNOW CAN EASILY BE LIFTED.
TOMORROW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND STRONG
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SYRACUSE
METRO AREA IN THE MORNING, EXTENDING EASTWARD TO OR JUST SOUTH
OF UTICA. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN BAND ADDITION SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA, MADISON AND CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STAYED CLOSE TO THE CMCREG, AS
IT DID AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOCATION WITH
THIS LAST EVENT. THE BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. INSIDE THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND, SNOWFALL RATES 2-4"/HR ARE POSSIBLE...AND
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH,
PRODUCING BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS IS SOMETHING WE ARE MONITORING CLOSELY
AND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SNOW INTENSITY AND STRONG WINDS
COMBINING TOGETHER FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD AND IF IT BECOMES
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH, THEN BLIZZARD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
325 AM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. A VERY SHARP,
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SIT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER LAKE
ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, BUT ITS ORIENTATION ALLOWS THE WIND FIELD TO KEEP ITS
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON AND THUS PERIODS OF MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NWERLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH. WE WILL LOOSE THE UPSTREAM
CONNECTION AND THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME LESS ALIGNED,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES IS
FORECAST TO FALL OVER ONONDAGA AND NORTHERN MADISON COUNTIES
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 1-3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE BORDERING COUNTIES. TO GO ALONG WITH THE SNOW,
VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM - 10F TO 10F ACROSS THE
REGION. WNW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE -5F TO -15F ACROSS THE
AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WYOMING VALLEY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD SEE QUIET
WEATHER, WITH SOME PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER. A STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE INTO
THE CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY, STOPPING ITS SOUTHERN MOTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA, BUT THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE AMPLIFIED ENOUGH
NOR DOES THE JET STREAM PATTERN SUGGEST THAT THIS DEVELOPING
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR REGION AS A NOR'EASTER.
SURFACE LOW CENTERS FROM BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
ALL THE LOWS CLUSTERED PRETTY CLOSE TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE TO THE
ENE, WELL EAST OF THE NORMAL 70N 40W BENCHMARK TO GET A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM FOR THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW AS
THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH NNWERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKES PRODUCES SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE LAKES DOES NOT
SUGGEST ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EVENT, BUT WE COULD GET A BRIEF
CONNECTION TO THE GEORGIAN BAY THAT MAY ALLOW US TO EEK OUT A
COUPLE INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WITH THE WIND PATTERN REMAINING MOSTLY NWERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TEENS AND
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
345 AM UPDATE...
WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. A HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BRINGING AN ABSOLUTELY MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM
THE EXTREMELY ACTIVE PATTERN WE HAVE HAD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS. A SLIGHT WARM UP IS ALSO EXPECTED AS WE WILL CREEP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY AND COULD ACTUALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
110 AM UPDATE
OCCASIONAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF NE PA. THIS
COULD BRING TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT ELM, ITH AND BGM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERHAPS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AT ITH.
AVP LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR FOR NOW, BUT BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AND LINGER THOUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. STEADIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS IN PLACE
AT SYR AND RME WITH IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 19Z AT SYR, AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT RME.
OCCASIONAL HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE TWO SITES;
AND TEMPOS WERE ADDED TO ATTEMPT TO TIME OUT SOME OF THIS
HEAVIER SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITY. AIRPORT MINIMUM CONDITIONS
ARE BASICALLY GUARANTEED UNDER THE BAND WITH THE STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY SNOW.
ALL OTHER SITES BESIDE RME AND SYR ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40
KTS THROUGH THE DAY, PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD BE BRIEFLY HIGHER.
THE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE EVENING HOURS
OUTLOOK...
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME. BLOWING SNOW
ALSO LIKELY AT THESE TWO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30-35
KNOTS AT TIMES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THURSDAY...MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (60% CONFIDENCE) WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS (40% CONFIDENCE).
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-015-016-
022>024.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
037.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ017-018-
025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ018-036.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG/MJM
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