724
FXUS61 KBGM 171149
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND HIGH WINDS EXPECTED. THE LAKE EFFECT STARTS TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS AREAWIDE FOR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
645 AM UPDATE
A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION SNOW BAND DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN TWIN TIERS EARLY THIS MORNING; KBGM
RADAR SHOWED 30-35DBZ RETURNS INDICATING VERY HEAVY SNOW AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. A SNOW SQUALL WARNING WAS ISSUED UNTIL 7 AM
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. POPS, QPF AND SNOW GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
SHOW THIS LAKE EFFECT AREA BETTER. THIS LAKE BAND SHOULD LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND LIKELY WEAKEN SOME/BECOME
DISCONNECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTIONS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS WELL ON TRACK FOR NOW.
500 AM UPDATE
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH A BLUSTERY, FRIGID
AIR MASS NOW SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE DOWN AROUND -16C THIS MORNING, AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
IS KEEPING STEADY LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOING UP ACROSS THE I-90
CORRIDOR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NARROW BANDS FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE TWIN TIERS. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL
BE STRONG, TO DAMAGING WINDS/WIND GUSTS TODAY, HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AM.
A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR SENECA,
YATES, SCHUYLER, STEUBEN AND CHEMUNG COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH EXPECTED IN ADVISORY AREAS, AND 60 MPH FOR THE WARNING
AREAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STRONG WIND SPEEDS. WINDS WILL BE MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND
THE 825-850MB HEIGHT TODAY AS THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND SUPPRESSING VERTICAL
MOTIONS. TURBULENT, ERRATIC GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A STEADY
PLUME OF MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HEAVY SNOW IMPACTING MOST OF
ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THE
UPSTREAM, MULTI LAKE CONNECTION IS CURRENTLY COMING OFF LAKE
HURON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LAKE ERIE THEN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. ANOTHER UPSTREAM
CONNECTION IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE MRMS RADAR LOOP COMING OFF
GEORGIAN BAY, ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND EXTENDING DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/I-90 CORRIDOR ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES LATER THIS MORNING, AND THIS WILL SHIFT THE MULTI-LAKE
CONNECTION BANDS NORTH. CAMS SHOW A HEAVY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW (SNOW RATES OF 1-2"/HR) DEVELOPING MID TO LATE MORNING AND
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE SYRACUSE METRO AREA MIDDAY; THE HEAVY
SNOW BAND WILL REACH UTICA AND ROME THIS AFTERNOON. AN EXTREMELY
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND (2-3"/HR) IS THEN FORECAST TO
SETUP AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL
BE MAINLY NORTH OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD....THEREFORE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN SHIFT BACK SOUTH SLOWLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY; JUST HOW FAR REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-90...THEREFORE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS OVER ONEIDA
COUNTY RIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING IS A LONG DURATION WARNING HERE. TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
12-28 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 IN ONONDAGA, MADISON AND
ONEIDA COUNTIES.
WITH THE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION OCCASIONAL
WHITE OUT AND BLIZZARD/NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXPOSED OPEN AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN SEEING 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 1/4SM VISIBILITY OR
LESS AND FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH FOR ANY GIVEN FORECAST
ZONE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW THIS SITUATION
EVOLVES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT ZONES IT WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY,
WINDY AND VERY COLD WITH A FEW MORNING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AROUND TODAY. MUCH OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT AND RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY; ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID-10S TO MID-20S TODAY, LOWS 0 TO 10 ABOVE TONIGHT
AND HIGHS IN THE 10S ON TUESDAY. THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS TO MAKE FOR FRIGID WIND CHILLS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE CATSKILLS, WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST IN SEE MINIMUM
WIND CHILLS BELOW -15F.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
325 AM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. A VERY SHARP,
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SIT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER LAKE
ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, BUT ITS ORIENTATION ALLOWS THE WIND FIELD TO KEEP ITS
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON AND THUS PERIODS OF MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NWERLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH. WE WILL LOOSE THE UPSTREAM
CONNECTION AND THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME LESS ALIGNED,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES IS
FORECAST TO FALL OVER ONONDAGA AND NORTHERN MADISON COUNTIES
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 1-3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE BORDERING COUNTIES. TO GO ALONG WITH THE SNOW,
VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM - 10F TO 10F ACROSS THE
REGION. WNW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE -5F TO -15F ACROSS THE
AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WYOMING VALLEY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD SEE QUIET
WEATHER, WITH SOME PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER. A STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE INTO
THE CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY, STOPPING ITS SOUTHERN MOTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA, BUT THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE AMPLIFIED ENOUGH
NOR DOES THE JET STREAM PATTERN SUGGEST THAT THIS DEVELOPING
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR REGION AS A NOR'EASTER.
SURFACE LOW CENTERS FROM BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
ALL THE LOWS CLUSTERED PRETTY CLOSE TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE TO THE
ENE, WELL EAST OF THE NORMAL 70N 40W BENCHMARK TO GET A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM FOR THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW AS
THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH NNWERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKES PRODUCES SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE LAKES DOES NOT
SUGGEST ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EVENT, BUT WE COULD GET A BRIEF
CONNECTION TO THE GEORGIAN BAY THAT MAY ALLOW US TO EEK OUT A
COUPLE INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WITH THE WIND PATTERN REMAINING MOSTLY NWERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TEENS AND
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
345 AM UPDATE...
WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. A HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BRINGING AN ABSOLUTELY MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM
THE EXTREMELY ACTIVE PATTERN WE HAVE HAD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS. A SLIGHT WARM UP IS ALSO EXPECTED AS WE WILL CREEP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY AND COULD ACTUALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
650 AM UPDATE
OCCASIONAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF NE PA. THIS
COULD BRING TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT ELM, ITH AND BGM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERHAPS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AT ITH.
AVP LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR FOR NOW, BUT BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AND LINGER THOUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. STEADIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS IN PLACE
AT SYR AND RME WITH IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 1930Z AT SYR, AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
RME. OCCASIONAL HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE TWO
SITES; AND TEMPOS WERE ADDED TO ATTEMPT TO TIME OUT SOME OF THIS
HEAVIER SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITY. AIRPORT MINIMUM CONDITIONS
ARE BASICALLY GUARANTEED UNDER THE BAND WITH THE STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY SNOW.
ALL OTHER SITES BESIDE RME AND SYR ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40
KTS THROUGH THE DAY, PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD BE BRIEFLY HIGHER.
THE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE EVENING HOURS
OUTLOOK...
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME. BLOWING SNOW
ALSO LIKELY AT THESE TWO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30-35
KNOTS AT TIMES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THURSDAY...MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (60% CONFIDENCE) WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS (40% CONFIDENCE).
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-015-016-
022>024.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
037.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ017-018-
025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ018-036.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ018-036.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ057-062.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MJM
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