062
FXUS61 KBGM 171924
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND HIGH WINDS EXPECTED. THE LAKE EFFECT STARTS TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
1000 AM UPDATE...
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS AS SNOW SQUALLS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD. ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS IMPACTING MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BEING OBSERVED NORTH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO BEEN
OBSERVED AND THIS IS RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
OPEN AREAS WILL HAVE DRIFTING AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, SO TRAVEL
IS NOT RECOMMENDED. MOST ARE SEEING WINDS BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
BUT THESE STRONG GUSTS ARE THE REASON FOR THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. FOR NOW, THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME.
TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECASTED, SO THOSE
WERE BUMPED UP THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS ALSO
NEEDED SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. WINDS WERE
DECREASED AS MOST OBS ARE BELOW FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
GUSTS.
645 AM UPDATE
A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION SNOW BAND DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN TWIN TIERS EARLY THIS MORNING; KBGM
RADAR SHOWED 30-35DBZ RETURNS INDICATING VERY HEAVY SNOW AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. A SNOW SQUALL WARNING WAS ISSUED UNTIL 7 AM
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. POPS, QPF AND SNOW GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
SHOW THIS LAKE EFFECT AREA BETTER. THIS LAKE BAND SHOULD LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND LIKELY WEAKEN SOME/BECOME
DISCONNECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTIONS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS WELL ON TRACK FOR NOW.
500 AM UPDATE
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH A BLUSTERY, FRIGID
AIR MASS NOW SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE DOWN AROUND -16C THIS MORNING, AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
IS KEEPING STEADY LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOING UP ACROSS THE I-90
CORRIDOR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NARROW BANDS FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE TWIN TIERS. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL
BE STRONG, TO DAMAGING WINDS/WIND GUSTS TODAY, HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AM.
A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR SENECA,
YATES, SCHUYLER, STEUBEN AND CHEMUNG COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH EXPECTED IN ADVISORY AREAS, AND 60 MPH FOR THE WARNING
AREAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STRONG WIND SPEEDS. WINDS WILL BE MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND
THE 825-850MB HEIGHT TODAY AS THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND SUPPRESSING VERTICAL
MOTIONS. TURBULENT, ERRATIC GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A STEADY
PLUME OF MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HEAVY SNOW IMPACTING MOST OF
ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THE
UPSTREAM, MULTI LAKE CONNECTION IS CURRENTLY COMING OFF LAKE
HURON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LAKE ERIE THEN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. ANOTHER UPSTREAM
CONNECTION IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE MRMS RADAR LOOP COMING OFF
GEORGIAN BAY, ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND EXTENDING DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/I-90 CORRIDOR ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES LATER THIS MORNING, AND THIS WILL SHIFT THE MULTI-LAKE
CONNECTION BANDS NORTH. CAMS SHOW A HEAVY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW (SNOW RATES OF 1-2"/HR) DEVELOPING MID TO LATE MORNING AND
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE SYRACUSE METRO AREA MIDDAY; THE HEAVY
SNOW BAND WILL REACH UTICA AND ROME THIS AFTERNOON. AN EXTREMELY
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND (2-3"/HR) IS THEN FORECAST TO
SETUP AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL
BE MAINLY NORTH OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD....THEREFORE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN SHIFT BACK SOUTH SLOWLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY; JUST HOW FAR REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-90...THEREFORE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS OVER ONEIDA
COUNTY RIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING IS A LONG DURATION WARNING HERE. TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
12-28 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 IN ONONDAGA, MADISON AND
ONEIDA COUNTIES.
WITH THE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION OCCASIONAL
WHITE OUT AND BLIZZARD/NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXPOSED OPEN AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN SEEING 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 1/4SM VISIBILITY OR
LESS AND FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH FOR ANY GIVEN FORECAST
ZONE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW THIS SITUATION
EVOLVES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT ZONES IT WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY,
WINDY AND VERY COLD WITH A FEW MORNING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AROUND TODAY. MUCH OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT AND RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY; ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID-10S TO MID-20S TODAY, LOWS 0 TO 10 ABOVE TONIGHT
AND HIGHS IN THE 10S ON TUESDAY. THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS TO MAKE FOR FRIGID WIND CHILLS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE CATSKILLS, WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST IN SEE MINIMUM
WIND CHILLS BELOW -15F.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. A VERY SHARP,
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SIT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER LAKE
ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, BUT ITS ORIENTATION ALLOWS THE WIND FIELD TO KEEP ITS
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON AND THUS PERIODS OF MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
215 PM UPDATE...
IT WILL REMAIN COLD THIS PERIOD, WITH MINOR LAKE EFFECT
LINGERING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR OUR
REGION THURSDAY.
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LOWER THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
GENERALLY BELOW 5000 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING, BREAKING THE
MULTILAKE CONNECTION. DESPITE THAT, THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
STILL CONTAIN SOME LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE AND AT DENDRITIC GROWTH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER. THE SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO PERSIST, ALBEIT LIGHT, ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES-CORTLAND-SYRACUSE LOCALES AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. INITIAL SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL MODESTLY IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY, TO SINGLE DIGITS-MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE WIND
WILL GO VERY LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT ACTUAL LOWS WILL AGAIN
BE ON THE COLD SIDE, IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 12 DEGREES;
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY REACH SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. STILL A
FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NY-FINGER LAKES AREAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION WITH A
STRONG SURFACE LOW EJECTING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THEN OUT
TO SEA. THAT SAID, ALOFT, A STRONG CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY AND THEN TREK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE, WHILE
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS PICK UP SOME LAKE MOISTURE. THE WIND
PATTERN ACROSS THE LAKES DOES NOT SUGGEST ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
EVENT, BUT WE COULD GET A BRIEF CONNECTION TO THE GEORGIAN BAY
THAT MAY ALLOW US TO MANAGE A FLUFFY INCH OR SO COATING IN
FAVORED AREAS OF CENTRAL NY. STILL PRETTY CHILLY WITH HIGHS OF
UPPER TEENS-LOWER 20S THURSDAY, AND LOWS OF UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS-MID TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
215 PM UPDATE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FINALLY FAVOR A BENIGN PATTERN WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BECOME FLATTER WITH TIME, FAVORING THE CONTAINMENT OF
COLDER AIR MORE TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA. WHILE STILL CHILLY
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS OF 20S, PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE LINGERING LAKE
FLURRIES; SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MILDER INTO THE UPPER
20S-UPPER 30S.
THAT SAID, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR SPECIFICS OF WEAK
UPPER WAVES THAT MAY SKIM THROUGH THE AREA. MINOR MOISTURE
COULD ALSO OCCASIONALLY COME OFF THE LAKES; THUS SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SNOW OR MIXED SNOW-RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY RULED OUT IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THOUGH, DRY
WEATHER IS MORE PROBABLE.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
1230 PM UPDATE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OVER CNY. THE NARROW BANDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO RESTRICTIONS
AT ITH AND BGM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER. A SINGLE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW WILL IMPACT MAINLY RME BUT WILL SWING
SOUTH AND ALSO IMPACT SYR. LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
START AT BOTH LOCATIONS. SYR WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR OVERNIGHT. RME WILL BE LIFR/IFR UNTIL 10Z TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL ALL BE VFR BY 21Z TODAY.
WINDS REMAIN QUITE GUSTY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
CALMER TONIGHT BUT GUSTS OF 25+ KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME. BLOWING SNOW ALSO
LIKELY AT THESE TWO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES ON TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-015-016-
022>024.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
037.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ017-018-
025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ018-036.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ018-036.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ057-062.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...BTL/MJM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BTL
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