421
FXUS61 KBGM 180000
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDWEEK. A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON THURSDAY.
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
645 PM UPDATE...
WITH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION LARGELY BELOW 30 MPH, THE HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WERE EXPIRED EARLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS
REORGANIZED AND IS IMPACTING ONEIDA COUNTY. THIS BAND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE IT WILL MOVE MUCH OUTSIDE OF SMALL SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
SO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE UPDATED THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND DIRECTION STILL SHOWS A SLOW SHIFT MORE NW
LATE TONIGHT SO THAT SHOULD HELP SHIFT THE BAND BACK INTO
NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTY BY MORNING.
400 PM UPDATE...
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS LIFTED NORTH AS EXPECTED TODAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES OVER N. ONEIDA. MEANWHILE, LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES REMAIN PRESENT OVER MUCH OF CNY, THOUGH NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH AND ALONG THE NYS THRUWAY
CORRIDOR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE
BAND WEST-EAST ORIENTED, THOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE FLOW THEN SHIFTS, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE BAND TO DROP SOUTH WITH THE MAIN BAND BECOMING
ORIENTED OVER NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES. ON TOP OF WHAT
HAS ALREADY FALLEN, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE THRUWAY AND THEN AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROP OFF FURTHER
SOUTH. THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ONONDAGA AND MADISON WAS UPGRADED
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO MATCH ONEIDA.
WHILE THE WIND HAZARDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CALMER TONIGHT
WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.
AS THE SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT AND FLUFFY, BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR
WITHIN AND OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DRIFTING AND NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WIND
CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -20 BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH WIND CHILLS
THIS LOW, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO ALL COUNTIES
EXCEPT S. ONEIDA AND OTSEGO. FOR THOSE TWO AREAS, CONFIDENCE WAS
LOWER GIVEN THAT CONDITIONS WERE MORE BORDERLINE OF MEETING
CRITERIA. STILL, EVEN WITHOUT A PRODUCT, IT WILL BE COLD.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT BAND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADITIONAL COOLING SO TEMPERATURES
WERE DROPPED AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. TOMORROW,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ONLY MAXING OUT IN THE TEENS AND LOW
20S. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVER MOST OF NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS, SO
IT'S POSSIBLE THE VALLEYS WARM UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED AS SEEN
TODAY. THEN ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN BELOW
ZERO. WITH WINDS BEING LIGHTER, THE WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LOW
AS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
215 PM UPDATE...
IT WILL REMAIN COLD THIS PERIOD, WITH MINOR LAKE EFFECT
LINGERING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR OUR
REGION THURSDAY.
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LOWER THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
GENERALLY BELOW 5000 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING, BREAKING THE
MULTILAKE CONNECTION. DESPITE THAT, THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
STILL CONTAIN SOME LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE AND AT DENDRITIC GROWTH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER. THE SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO PERSIST, ALBEIT LIGHT, ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES-CORTLAND-SYRACUSE LOCALES AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. INITIAL SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL MODESTLY IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY, TO SINGLE DIGITS-MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE WIND
WILL GO VERY LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT ACTUAL LOWS WILL AGAIN
BE ON THE COLD SIDE, IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 12 DEGREES;
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY REACH SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. STILL A
FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NY-FINGER LAKES AREAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION WITH A
STRONG SURFACE LOW EJECTING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THEN OUT
TO SEA. THAT SAID, ALOFT, A STRONG CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY AND THEN TREK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE, WHILE
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS PICK UP SOME LAKE MOISTURE. THE WIND
PATTERN ACROSS THE LAKES DOES NOT SUGGEST ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
EVENT, BUT WE COULD GET A BRIEF CONNECTION TO THE GEORGIAN BAY
THAT MAY ALLOW US TO MANAGE A FLUFFY INCH OR SO COATING IN
FAVORED AREAS OF CENTRAL NY. STILL PRETTY CHILLY WITH HIGHS OF
UPPER TEENS-LOWER 20S THURSDAY, AND LOWS OF UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS-MID TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
215 PM UPDATE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FINALLY FAVOR A BENIGN PATTERN WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BECOME FLATTER WITH TIME, FAVORING THE CONTAINMENT OF
COLDER AIR MORE TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA. WHILE STILL CHILLY
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS OF 20S, PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE LINGERING LAKE
FLURRIES; SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MILDER INTO THE UPPER
20S-UPPER 30S.
THAT SAID, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR SPECIFICS OF WEAK
UPPER WAVES THAT MAY SKIM THROUGH THE AREA. MINOR MOISTURE
COULD ALSO OCCASIONALLY COME OFF THE LAKES; THUS SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SNOW OR MIXED SNOW-RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY RULED OUT IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THOUGH, DRY
WEATHER IS MORE PROBABLE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH TOP WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
LOOK TO BE THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT KSYR AND KRME.
FOR KSYR AND KRME A BAND OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL SETUP WITH MOVEMENT BASED ON SLIGHT CHANGES IN
THE WIND DIRECTION. KRME SHOULD BE IN THE BAND FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH KSYR TIMEFRAME LIKELY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT TILL
ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY. SOME TIMING UNCERTAINITY IS PRESENT SO
TEMPOS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME. BLOWING SNOW
ALSO LIKELY AT THESE TWO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25
KNOTS AT TIMES ON TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
018-036-037.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-044-045-055>057-
062.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BTL/MWG
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