602
FXUS61 KBGM 180856
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
356 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDWEEK. A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON THURSDAY.
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
930 PM UPDATE...
ADDED OTSEGO COUNTY IN TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS 0Z DATA
SHOWED SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF FASTER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DECOUPLING WITH LESS WIND BUT IF THAT HAPPENS, THE FRESH SNOW
WILL HELP WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
GET CLOSE TO THE -15 THRESHOLD.
645 PM UPDATE...
WITH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION LARGELY BELOW 30 MPH, THE HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WERE EXPIRED EARLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS
REORGANIZED AND IS IMPACTING ONEIDA COUNTY. THIS BAND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE IT WILL MOVE MUCH OUTSIDE OF SMALL SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
SO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE UPDATED THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND DIRECTION STILL SHOWS A SLOW SHIFT MORE NW
LATE TONIGHT SO THAT SHOULD HELP SHIFT THE BAND BACK INTO
NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTY BY MORNING.
400 PM UPDATE...
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS LIFTED NORTH AS EXPECTED TODAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES OVER N. ONEIDA. MEANWHILE, LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES REMAIN PRESENT OVER MUCH OF CNY, THOUGH NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH AND ALONG THE NYS THRUWAY
CORRIDOR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE
BAND WEST-EAST ORIENTED, THOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE FLOW THEN SHIFTS, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE BAND TO DROP SOUTH WITH THE MAIN BAND BECOMING
ORIENTED OVER NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES. ON TOP OF WHAT
HAS ALREADY FALLEN, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE THRUWAY AND THEN AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROP OFF FURTHER
SOUTH. THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ONONDAGA AND MADISON WAS UPGRADED
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO MATCH ONEIDA.
WHILE THE WIND HAZARDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CALMER TONIGHT
WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.
AS THE SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT AND FLUFFY, BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR
WITHIN AND OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DRIFTING AND NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WIND
CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -20 BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH WIND CHILLS
THIS LOW, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO ALL COUNTIES
EXCEPT S. ONEIDA AND OTSEGO. FOR THOSE TWO AREAS, CONFIDENCE WAS
LOWER GIVEN THAT CONDITIONS WERE MORE BORDERLINE OF MEETING
CRITERIA. STILL, EVEN WITHOUT A PRODUCT, IT WILL BE COLD.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT BAND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADITIONAL COOLING SO TEMPERATURES
WERE DROPPED AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. TOMORROW,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ONLY MAXING OUT IN THE TEENS AND LOW
20S. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVER MOST OF NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS, SO
IT'S POSSIBLE THE VALLEYS WARM UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED AS SEEN
TODAY. THEN ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN BELOW
ZERO. WITH WINDS BEING LIGHTER, THE WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LOW
AS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
355 AM UPDATE:
WITH A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW, A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE PRESENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION, BUT
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH; MAINLY LESS THAN A HALF
INCH TO PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH. ELSEWHERE, SNOW-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS, BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS,
WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OUT-TO-SEA OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY, WHICH MEANS A
SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL NOT IMPACT OUR REGION. THAT BEING SAID, A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION,
WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THEN AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NY
(AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA) THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD, IT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW-FREE WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER
20S, ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT FROM FALLING MUCH WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO
THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND WILL FINALLY MARK THE START OF A QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
355 AM UPDATE:
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL. SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH MAY BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN OR
SNOW, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
MAINLY DRY.
IN ADDITION TO THE MAINLY DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IN THE LONG
TERM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A MODERATING TREND. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY (HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S), BUT CLIMB BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL ON SUNDAY
(HIGHS IN THE 30S), AND THEN EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S).
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH TOP WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT KSYR AND
KRME.
FOR KSYR AND KRME A BAND OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL SETUP WITH MOVEMENT BASED ON SLIGHT CHANGES IN
THE WIND DIRECTION. KRME SHOULD BE IN THE BAND FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH KSYR TIMEFRAME LIKELY AFTER 07Z TONIGHT TILL
ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY. SOME TIMING UNCERTAINITY IS PRESENT SO
TEMPOS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME. BLOWING SNOW
ALSO LIKELY AT THESE TWO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25
KNOTS AT TIMES ON TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
018-036-037.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BTL/ES/MWG
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