934
FXUS61 KBGM 181151
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW ON THURSDAY. MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTER WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
630 AM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER ONEIDA COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE SYRACUSE AREA
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MADE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS USING A BLEND OF CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
430 AM UPDATE...
PERSISTENT MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH AND ALONG THE NYS THRUWAY TODAY. COLD AIR
MASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -20
DEGREES C. MODELED SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING SUGGESTING FAVORABLE LES CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT BAND
TO INITIALLY ORIENT OVER ONEIDA COUNTY THIS MORNING, BUT AS FLOW
SHIFTS WEST NORTHWEST THE BAND WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH OVER
ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES. BAND IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION. BUMPED
UP SNOW RATIOS USING A BLEND OF THE CANADIAN AND NBM. IN TERMS
OF QPF, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CANADIAN WITH WPC. AS A RESULT
AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 16 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE AREAS SOUTH OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING. WITH INCREASING WINDS AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE TEENS, CONDITIONS WILL FEEL RATHER CHILLY TODAY. WINDS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. NBM
INITIALLY WAS TOO LOW, THEREFORE BLENDED IN SOME OF THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. REGARDLESS OF THESE CHANGES, REGION REMAINS BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY LOSING
INTENSITY AS THE MULTI LAKE CONNECTION DISORGANIZES. LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL NY, EASTERN
FINGER LAKES AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY REGIONS, BUT WITH
LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
355 AM UPDATE:
WITH A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW, A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE PRESENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION, BUT
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH; MAINLY LESS THAN A HALF
INCH TO PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH. ELSEWHERE, SNOW-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS, BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS,
WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OUT-TO-SEA OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY, WHICH MEANS A
SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL NOT IMPACT OUR REGION. THAT BEING SAID, A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION,
WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THEN AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NY
(AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA) THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD, IT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW-FREE WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER
20S, ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT FROM FALLING MUCH WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO
THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND WILL FINALLY MARK THE START OF A QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
355 AM UPDATE:
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL. SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH MAY BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN OR
SNOW, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
MAINLY DRY.
IN ADDITION TO THE MAINLY DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IN THE LONG
TERM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A MODERATING TREND. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY (HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S), BUT CLIMB BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL ON SUNDAY
(HIGHS IN THE 30S), AND THEN EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S).
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH TOP WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT KSYR AND
KRME.
FOR KSYR AND KRME A BAND OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL SETUP WITH MOVEMENT BASED ON SLIGHT CHANGES IN
THE WIND DIRECTION. BAND CONTINUES OVER RME THIS MORNING WITH
PERSISTENT BELOW AIRPORT MINS. BAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO SYR
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES LOWERING VISIBILITY. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINITY IS PRESENT SO TEMPOS WERE ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GRADUALLY LESSEN IN INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME. BLOWING SNOW
ALSO LIKELY AT THESE TWO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25
KNOTS AT TIMES ON TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
018-036-037.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...BTL/ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BTL/ES/MWG
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