685
FXUS61 KBGM 181944
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
244 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR WITH ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON
THURSDAY. MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
245 PM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE FOCUSED ON THE CONTINUING
THREAT OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY, TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG
WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.
WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN US WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST US AND COMBINE WITH
FAVORABLE W/NW FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO WED
MORNING.
THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
BROAD DIFFUSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, CURRENTLY SITUATED
MAINLY OVER OSWEGO AND ONEIDA COUNTIES...AND HAS BEEN MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY. PRIOR FORECASTS BROUGHT THIS BAND TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THAT HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THIS BAND REMAINING IN ITS CURRENT LOCATION FOR THE
NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS BEFORE THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
AND CHANGES THE WIND TRAJECTORY TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY, AND DROPS
THE BAND TO THE SOUTH.
THE BAND DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD COINCIDE WITH SOME ORGANIZATION
AND POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWFALL RATES FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN OSWEGO AND
NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND NORTHERN MADISON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WINDS WILL ALSO STILL BE QUITE GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH WILL INDUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW THE LAKE BAND PROGRESSES AND
CHANGES IN MAGNITUDE WED MORNING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE (WHICH
HASN'T BEEN EXACTLY STELLAR RECENTLY) DISSIPATES THE LAKE BAND
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF
COLD AIR AND THE LACK OF AN ENDING 850MB RIDGE AXIS, THERE WAS
SOME THOUGHT TO EXTENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THROUGH
12 PM WED, BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE EVOLVES IF
THIS IS NEEDED. EITHER WAY, THE LAKE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY WED AND EVENTUALLY END LATE WED OR WED
NIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET WED NIGHT.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT
OVER NORTHEAST PA. THE THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS -10
FOR WYOMING, LACKAWANNA, LUZERNE, SOUTHERN WAYNE AND PIKE
COUNTIES IN NE PA, AND IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH WHICH WILL DROP WIND CHILLS TO -10 TO -15 DEG. THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WILL
EXPERIENCE WEAKER WINDS AND WIND CHILLS ONLY TO AROUND -5 DEG.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
355 AM UPDATE:
WITH A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW, A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE PRESENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION, BUT
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH; MAINLY LESS THAN A HALF
INCH TO PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH. ELSEWHERE, SNOW-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS, BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS,
WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OUT-TO-SEA OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY, WHICH MEANS A
SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL NOT IMPACT OUR REGION. THAT BEING SAID, A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION,
WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THEN AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NY
(AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA) THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD, IT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW-FREE WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER
20S, ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT FROM FALLING MUCH WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO
THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND WILL FINALLY MARK THE START OF A QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
355 AM UPDATE:
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL. SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH MAY BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN OR
SNOW, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
MAINLY DRY.
IN ADDITION TO THE MAINLY DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IN THE LONG
TERM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A MODERATING TREND. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY (HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S), BUT CLIMB BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL ON SUNDAY
(HIGHS IN THE 30S), AND THEN EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S).
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS OF RME AND SYR DUE TO PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL VARY FROM IFR TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS
AS TIMES. THE LAKE SNOW BAND LOOKS TO BE MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 20Z, WHICH WOULD HAVE MORE IMPACTS ON
RME AND THEN AFTER 20Z SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND IMPACT SYR INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SNOW BAND BECOMES WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE AFTER 09Z, BUT THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT SYR AND
POSSIBLY REACH TO ITH AND BGM AS WELL WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS WEAKENING TO 10 KT OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ITH AND BGM DURING THIS PERIOD OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE, ELM AND AVP SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT...ON AND OFF RESTRICTIONS IN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSYR AND KRME.
THURSDAY...MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...LOW PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW
MOVING THROUGH.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
018-036-037.
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BJT
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