092
FXUS61 KBGM 190549
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1249 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR WITH ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON
THURSDAY. MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
945 PM UPDATE...
SNOWFALL HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS MOVED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTY LINES AS THE
SNOW BAND HAS BEEN SLOW TO DIP SOUTH. AS IT BEGINS TO LOSE ITS
MULTI LAKE CONNECTION, THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DECREASE.
640 PM UPDATE...
STILL WATCHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER ONEIDA COUNTY.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH THIS EVENING. THIS BAND HAS
BEEN MIGHTY STUBBORN THOUGH SO CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG ORGANIZED
BAND DROPPING INTO NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES IS
WANING BUT LAKE EFFECT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LEFT UP FOR NOW.
245 PM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE FOCUSED ON THE CONTINUING
THREAT OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY, TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG
WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.
WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN US WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST US AND COMBINE WITH
FAVORABLE W/NW FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO WED
MORNING.
THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
BROAD DIFFUSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, CURRENTLY SITUATED
MAINLY OVER OSWEGO AND ONEIDA COUNTIES...AND HAS BEEN MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY. PRIOR FORECASTS BROUGHT THIS BAND TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THAT HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THIS BAND REMAINING IN ITS CURRENT LOCATION FOR THE
NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS BEFORE THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
AND CHANGES THE WIND TRAJECTORY TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY, AND DROPS
THE BAND TO THE SOUTH.
THE BAND DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD COINCIDE WITH SOME ORGANIZATION
AND POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWFALL RATES FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN OSWEGO AND
NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND NORTHERN MADISON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WINDS WILL ALSO STILL BE QUITE GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH WILL INDUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW THE LAKE BAND PROGRESSES AND
CHANGES IN MAGNITUDE WED MORNING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE (WHICH
HASN'T BEEN EXACTLY STELLAR RECENTLY) DISSIPATES THE LAKE BAND
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF
COLD AIR AND THE LACK OF AN ENDING 850MB RIDGE AXIS, THERE WAS
SOME THOUGHT TO EXTENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THROUGH
12 PM WED, BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE EVOLVES IF
THIS IS NEEDED. EITHER WAY, THE LAKE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY WED AND EVENTUALLY END LATE WED OR WED
NIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET WED NIGHT.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT
OVER NORTHEAST PA. THE THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS -10
FOR WYOMING, LACKAWANNA, LUZERNE, SOUTHERN WAYNE AND PIKE
COUNTIES IN NE PA, AND IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH WHICH WILL DROP WIND CHILLS TO -10 TO -15 DEG. THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WILL
EXPERIENCE WEAKER WINDS AND WIND CHILLS ONLY TO AROUND -5 DEG.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
325 PM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING
ON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE PRETTY LIGHT IN NATURE,
GENERALLY A COATING TO AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST, NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTING BACK UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO THE
RETURN OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS CNY, THE CATSKILLS AND PERHAPS INTO
THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. THE REST OF NE PA IS EXPECTED TO BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
325 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
IN ALOFT, IT WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WEAK, QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO THE CHANCE OF
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, THEN LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM CAN LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARD SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S IN SOME VALLEYS, AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS FINALLY SHIFTED SOUTH OVER SYR WITH LIFR
AND IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TOWARD MORNING, SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE FOR KSYR. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER RME TONIGHT AS THE BAND
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TRANSITION, OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TOWARDS EARLY MORNING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND. IT APPEARS TO BE
LOSING SOME INTENSITY WITH THIS SHIFT IN DIRECTION.
CONTINUED WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH TOP GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS AND VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT MVFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING AT BGM AND ITH, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...ON AND OFF RESTRICTIONS IN SLOWLY DIMINISHING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSYR AND KRME.
THURSDAY...MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...LOW PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW
MOVING THROUGH.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ009-018-036-037.
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJT
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BJT/ES/MWG
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