253
FXUS61 KBGM 190754
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
254 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS
THIS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON THURSDAY. MUCH QUIETER
CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
945 PM UPDATE...
SNOWFALL HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS MOVED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTY LINES AS THE
SNOW BAND HAS BEEN SLOW TO DIP SOUTH. AS IT BEGINS TO LOSE ITS
MULTI LAKE CONNECTION, THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DECREASE.
640 PM UPDATE...
STILL WATCHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER ONEIDA COUNTY.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH THIS EVENING. THIS BAND HAS
BEEN MIGHTY STUBBORN THOUGH SO CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG ORGANIZED
BAND DROPPING INTO NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES IS
WANING BUT LAKE EFFECT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LEFT UP FOR NOW.
245 PM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE FOCUSED ON THE CONTINUING
THREAT OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY, TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG
WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.
WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN US WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST US AND COMBINE WITH
FAVORABLE W/NW FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO WED
MORNING.
THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
BROAD DIFFUSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, CURRENTLY SITUATED
MAINLY OVER OSWEGO AND ONEIDA COUNTIES...AND HAS BEEN MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY. PRIOR FORECASTS BROUGHT THIS BAND TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THAT HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THIS BAND REMAINING IN ITS CURRENT LOCATION FOR THE
NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS BEFORE THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
AND CHANGES THE WIND TRAJECTORY TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY, AND DROPS
THE BAND TO THE SOUTH.
THE BAND DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD COINCIDE WITH SOME ORGANIZATION
AND POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWFALL RATES FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN OSWEGO AND
NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND NORTHERN MADISON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WINDS WILL ALSO STILL BE QUITE GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH WILL INDUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW THE LAKE BAND PROGRESSES AND
CHANGES IN MAGNITUDE WED MORNING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE (WHICH
HASN'T BEEN EXACTLY STELLAR RECENTLY) DISSIPATES THE LAKE BAND
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF
COLD AIR AND THE LACK OF AN ENDING 850MB RIDGE AXIS, THERE WAS
SOME THOUGHT TO EXTENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THROUGH
12 PM WED, BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE EVOLVES IF
THIS IS NEEDED. EITHER WAY, THE LAKE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY WED AND EVENTUALLY END LATE WED OR WED
NIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET WED NIGHT.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT
OVER NORTHEAST PA. THE THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS -10
FOR WYOMING, LACKAWANNA, LUZERNE, SOUTHERN WAYNE AND PIKE
COUNTIES IN NE PA, AND IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH WHICH WILL DROP WIND CHILLS TO -10 TO -15 DEG. THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WILL
EXPERIENCE WEAKER WINDS AND WIND CHILLS ONLY TO AROUND -5 DEG.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
250 AM UPDATE:
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE EAST, A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY (AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA)
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD, IT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW-
FREE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE
TEENS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT. THEN ANOTHER COLD DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND WILL FINALLY MARK THE START OF A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE WEEKEND. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AGAIN,
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES. WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT, IT
WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUD
COVER, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER (MAINLY IN THE 20S).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
250 AM UPDATE:
OVERALL, THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY BENIGN IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (PERHAPS PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
POCONOS TO THE CATSKILLS). THE MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. CHANCES ARE THAT THIS HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THIS CLIPPER MAY BRING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS SOON AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FORECAST BY TUESDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT IS
POSSIBLE AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND
BRING MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL AGAIN BE MILD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS FINALLY SHIFTED SOUTH OVER SYR WITH LIFR
AND IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TOWARD MORNING, SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE FOR KSYR. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER RME TONIGHT AS THE BAND
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TRANSITION, OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TOWARDS EARLY MORNING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND. IT APPEARS TO BE
LOSING SOME INTENSITY WITH THIS SHIFT IN DIRECTION.
CONTINUED WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH TOP GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS AND VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT MVFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING AT BGM AND ITH, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...ON AND OFF RESTRICTIONS IN SLOWLY DIMINISHING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSYR AND KRME.
THURSDAY...MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...LOW PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW
MOVING THROUGH.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ009-018-036-037.
SYNOPSIS...BJG/BJT
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJT
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...ES
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