785
FXUS61 KBGM 191813
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
113 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS CENTRAL NY TODAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
850 AM UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CNY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
TIER OF PA WHICH THE CAMS ARE NOT HANDLING WELL. BLENDED IN THE
LATEST OBS WHICH BROUGHT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS UP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA.
530 AM UPDATE...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. OTHERWISE A COLD START WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS USING CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
400 AM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS SHIFTED SOUTH THIS MORNING LOSING THE MULTI
LAKE CONNECTION. AS A RESULT THE BAND WEAKENED AND LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS WERE CANCELED EARLY. NORTHWEST FLOW IS ALLOWING LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT REMAINS COLD AND
BREEZY THIS MORNING.
COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING -17 TO -18 DEGREES C. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALLOWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO PERSIST OVER
CENTRAL NY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TAPER
OFF THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY END TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHIELD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FURTHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING ON. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW TOTALS ARE RANGING 1
TO 3 INCHES AT MOST FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN
COOL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
250 AM UPDATE:
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE EAST, A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY (AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA)
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD, IT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW-
FREE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE
TEENS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT. THEN ANOTHER COLD DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND WILL FINALLY MARK THE START OF A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE WEEKEND. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AGAIN,
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES. WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT, IT
WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUD
COVER, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER (MAINLY IN THE 20S).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
250 AM UPDATE:
OVERALL, THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY BENIGN IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (PERHAPS PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
POCONOS TO THE CATSKILLS). THE MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. CHANCES ARE THAT THIS HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THIS CLIPPER MAY BRING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS SOON AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FORECAST BY TUESDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT IS
POSSIBLE AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND
BRING MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL AGAIN BE MILD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CNY
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY SYR, ITH AND BGM, THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR VISBY POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS FOR
MOST OF THE NY TERMINALS AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SLOWLY
DIMINISHES. AVP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS A PERIOD OF STEADIER, BUT LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN OVER THE
AREA. THIS SNOW WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 18Z BUT COULD LEAD TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY FOR THE CNY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...LOW PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW
MOVING THROUGH.
MONDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK/ES
NEAR TERM...DK/ES
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DK
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