987
FXUS61 KBGM 191936
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
236 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS CENTRAL NY TODAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
850 AM UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CNY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
TIER OF PA WHICH THE CAMS ARE NOT HANDLING WELL. BLENDED IN THE
LATEST OBS WHICH BROUGHT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS UP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA.
530 AM UPDATE...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. OTHERWISE A COLD START WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS USING CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
400 AM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS SHIFTED SOUTH THIS MORNING LOSING THE MULTI
LAKE CONNECTION. AS A RESULT THE BAND WEAKENED AND LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS WERE CANCELED EARLY. NORTHWEST FLOW IS ALLOWING LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT REMAINS COLD AND
BREEZY THIS MORNING.
COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING -17 TO -18 DEGREES C. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALLOWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO PERSIST OVER
CENTRAL NY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TAPER
OFF THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY END TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHIELD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FURTHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING ON. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW TOTALS ARE RANGING 1
TO 3 INCHES AT MOST FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN
COOL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
235 PM UPDATE...
WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN EXITING TROUGH,
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BEGINNING WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL NY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WILL BE CUT OFF HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY AND THURSDAY AS WE SIT UNDER A COLD AIR MASS, BUT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN, SOME WARMER AIR WILL CREEP IN, AND
BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S ON
SATURDAY, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL TRY TO SWING SOME
PRECIPITATION DOWN INTO CENTRAL NY HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
235 PM UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL NY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AREAS WEST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS WESTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE
MAY HELP TO INFLUENCE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT SNOWFALL TOO.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING, IN THE MID TO HIGH 30S, THIS
WILL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX EVENT. THERE ISN'T TOO MUCH TO SAY
ABOUT THE EVENT NOW, SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF TIME AND ROOM FOR
MODELS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES
DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY, IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT, BUT WE'LL MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY IMPACT US FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW, AND POSSIBLY GETTING
COLDER AGAIN, AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CNY
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY SYR, ITH AND BGM, THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR VISBY POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS FOR
MOST OF THE NY TERMINALS AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SLOWLY
DIMINISHES. AVP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS A PERIOD OF STEADIER, BUT LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN OVER THE
AREA. THIS SNOW WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 18Z BUT COULD LEAD TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY FOR THE CNY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...LOW PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW
MOVING THROUGH.
MONDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK/ES
NEAR TERM...DK/ES
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...DK/ES
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