168
FXUS61 KBGM 200546
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1246 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
LATER TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
10 PM UPDATE...STILL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND UPDATED POP TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. NO OTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
630 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON-TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
345 PM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS CNY AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-81 WHERE 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND -18C THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND -13C TO -14C OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.
AROUND THE FINGER LAKES AND SYRACUSE METRO, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES CAN LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED LAKE
INFLUENCE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FROM
WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW EVENING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAKE OVER, MAINLY
ACROSS CNY. SNOWFALL TOTALS TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 3 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS AROUND AND DOWNWIND OF THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IN THIS AREA TOMORROW EVENING THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME SPOTS
NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN PARTICULAR ACROSS SOUTHERN CAYUGA
AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES, SO FUTURE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. WIND
GUSTS TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
TOMORROW IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
235 PM UPDATE...
WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN EXITING TROUGH,
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BEGINNING WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL NY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE CUT OFF HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY AND THURSDAY AS WE SIT UNDER A COLD AIR MASS,
BUT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN, SOME WARMER AIR WILL CREEP
IN, AND BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S ON
SATURDAY, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT,
A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL TRY TO SWING SOME
PRECIPITATION DOWN INTO CENTRAL NY HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
235 PM UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL NY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AREAS WEST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS WESTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE
MAY HELP TO INFLUENCE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT SNOWFALL TOO.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING, IN THE MID TO HIGH 30S, THIS
WILL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX EVENT. THERE ISN'T TOO MUCH TO SAY
ABOUT THE EVENT NOW, SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF TIME AND ROOM FOR
MODELS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES
DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY, IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT, BUT WE'LL MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY IMPACT US FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW, AND POSSIBLY GETTING
COLDER AGAIN, AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT SYR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH PERIODS OF IFR VISBY POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS FOR
MOST OF THE NY TERMINALS AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SLOWLY
DIMINISHES.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW MORNING INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STEADY LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN OVER THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAY LEAD
TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY FOR THE CNY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...LOW PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW
MOVING THROUGH.
MONDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...ES/MPK
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