134
FXUS61 KBGM 201459
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
959 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
TODAY. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
945 AM UPDATE...
FINGER LAKE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE ACROSS CNY THIS MORNING, AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
GENERALLY THE SAME. SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTH CENTRAL
PA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
500MB LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS IS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
DRIVING THE FINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SO AREAS DOWNWIND
OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD START TO SEE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE BANDS.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, WITH UP TO
2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD AIR IS
HOLDING ON LONGER IN ONEIDA COUNTY THAN EXPECTED, WITH SINGLE
DIGITS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA.
600 AM UPDATE...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND FORMING OFF OF SENECA LAKE. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO
INCLUDE SHOWERS EXTENDING FURTHER INTO THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS USING CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
400 AM UPDATE...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LINGER AROUND THE FINGER
LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER REGION THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. OTHERWISE ATTENTION SHIFTS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION TODAY BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THERE IS
POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL
ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS WELL. FORECASTED
SNOW TOTALS ARE ON THE LOWER END WITH AMOUNTS RANGING 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND GUSTS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE SETTING OFF MORE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CARRY ON OVER INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
235 AM UPDATE:
A FEW LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW STILL PRESENT. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT, HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND THEREFORE WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA/CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO. WHERE THERE AREN'T LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS (MAINLY NORTHEAST PA TO THE CATSKILLS), SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS, WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS AND
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
(ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE, WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOME SLOW MELTING OF
THE EXISTING SNOWPACK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (PERHAPS PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
POCONOS TO THE CATSKILLS). THE MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVEN MONDAY
NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
235 AM UPDATE:
THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD BECOMES SLIGHTLY
MORE ACTIVE, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME, NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, WITH 40S
IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS. MEANWHILE, THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, THIS
LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN AND RELATIVELY MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE AIRMASS AND THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT SYR AND ITH
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR TO FUEL ALT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. STEADY LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAY LEAD TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR ALL TERMINALS. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MVFR RESTRICTIONS AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...LOW PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW
MOVING THROUGH.
MONDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJT/DK/ES
NEAR TERM...ES/JTC
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...ES/MPK
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