104
FXUS61 KBGM 201909
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL SEE A WELCOME PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
145 PM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, DRIVEN BY 2 SEPARATE
FEATURES THAT IS QUITE INTERESTING.
BELOW 800MB, NW FLOW HAS ALLOWED FINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER, EXTENDING NORTH
INTO CHENANGO, CORTLAND AND TOMPKINS COUNTY. THESE BANDS HAVE
PICKED UP IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS
WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A 500MB CLOSED LOW MOVES
SOUTH OF THE REGION, INJECTING ADDED MOISTURE TO THE LAKE EFFECT
BANDS BUT ALSO CAUSING ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE REGION. THE 2 DIFFERENT PROCESSES
CAN BE SEEN WELL IN RADAR RETURNS; LOW LEVEL, STRONGER RETURNS
REPRESENTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE MOVING FROM NW TO SE, WHILE
THE BROAD, SYNOPTIC SCALE LIGHT SNOW DRIVEN BY THE MID-LEVEL LOW
CAN BE SEEN SPREADING FROM S TO N AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE A LITTLE TRICKY IN THIS SET UP GIVEN THE 2
DIFFERENT PROCESSES AT PLAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD 1-3
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
TWIN TIERS AS BOTH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL FALL HERE.
ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A TRACE TO HALF INCH
DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THIS AREA FOR VERY LONG.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AS NW FLOW
CONTINUES WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. WARMER TEMPS AT 850MB
WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHIFT
TO MORE WESTERLY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
HELP CHANGE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO MORE FLURRIES WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SHIFT THE SNOW TO ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.
IN TOTAL, 3-5 INCHES OF VERY LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN COLD AS NW FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP A COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS WILL FALL TO THE LOW TEENS TONIGHT, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
235 AM UPDATE:
A FEW LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW STILL PRESENT. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT, HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND THEREFORE WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA/CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO. WHERE THERE AREN'T LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS (MAINLY NORTHEAST PA TO THE CATSKILLS), SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS, WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS AND
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
(ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE, WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOME SLOW MELTING OF
THE EXISTING SNOWPACK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (PERHAPS PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
POCONOS TO THE CATSKILLS). THE MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVEN MONDAY
NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
235 AM UPDATE:
THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD BECOMES SLIGHTLY
MORE ACTIVE, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME, NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, WITH 40S
IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS. MEANWHILE, THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, THIS
LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN AND RELATIVELY MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE AIRMASS AND THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, IMPACTING
AVP/BGM/ELM/ITH. AVP AND ELM SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE
WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BGM AND ITH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THESE TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT SNOW BANDS WILL IMPACT ITH INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS TO KEEP IFR CONDITIONS GOING AT ITH UNTIL
03Z. BGM MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THESE TAFS.
IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SNOW BANDS SET UP AND WITH
THEIR NARROW NATURE AND BGMS DISTANCE FROM THE FINGER LAKES, IT
IS CURRENTLY UNCLEAR IF THEY WILL BE NEAR BGM.
SYR AND RME SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SYR
MAY SEE PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR IFR VISBY FOR ITH/SYR/RME. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...LOW PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW
MOVING THROUGH.
MONDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJT/DK/ES
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC
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