597
FXUS61 KBGM 202034
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
334 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL SEE A WELCOME PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
145 PM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, DRIVEN BY 2 SEPARATE
FEATURES THAT IS QUITE INTERESTING.
BELOW 800MB, NW FLOW HAS ALLOWED FINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER, EXTENDING NORTH
INTO CHENANGO, CORTLAND AND TOMPKINS COUNTY. THESE BANDS HAVE
PICKED UP IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS
WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A 500MB CLOSED LOW MOVES
SOUTH OF THE REGION, INJECTING ADDED MOISTURE TO THE LAKE EFFECT
BANDS BUT ALSO CAUSING ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE REGION. THE 2 DIFFERENT PROCESSES
CAN BE SEEN WELL IN RADAR RETURNS; LOW LEVEL, STRONGER RETURNS
REPRESENTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE MOVING FROM NW TO SE, WHILE
THE BROAD, SYNOPTIC SCALE LIGHT SNOW DRIVEN BY THE MID-LEVEL LOW
CAN BE SEEN SPREADING FROM S TO N AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE A LITTLE TRICKY IN THIS SET UP GIVEN THE 2
DIFFERENT PROCESSES AT PLAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD 1-3
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
TWIN TIERS AS BOTH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL FALL HERE.
ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A TRACE TO HALF INCH
DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THIS AREA FOR VERY LONG.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AS NW FLOW
CONTINUES WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. WARMER TEMPS AT 850MB
WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHIFT
TO MORE WESTERLY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
HELP CHANGE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO MORE FLURRIES WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SHIFT THE SNOW TO ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.
IN TOTAL, 3-5 INCHES OF VERY LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN COLD AS NW FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP A COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS WILL FALL TO THE LOW TEENS TONIGHT, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
330 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A
PRETTY QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD LEAD
TO A FEW FLURRIES IN THE MORNING ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY, OTHERWISE
A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH
THE FLOW BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, IT WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO OR JUST BELOW
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND SKIRTING ACROSS
OUR AREA COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
ANOTHER LARGELY DRY DAY SUNDAY. SUNSHINE LOOKS TO BE MORE
LIMITED, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE UPPER 30S. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NE
PA WHERE MORE SUNSHINE CAN MIX IN WITH THE CLOUDS COULD REACH 40
DEGREES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
330 PM UPDATE...
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL EURO AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING, WHILE THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF MONDAY. THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING EVEN
MORE INTO THE MID 30S AND MID 40S MONDAY, A MIX OF RAIN AND WET
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. AS A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK LOOKS MORE ACTIVE BUT
FEATURES QUICK-MOVING SYSTEMS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
THE MID 40S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE
WYOMING VALLEY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST- NORTHWESTERLY IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO AROUND -7 DEGREES C, SO THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY LOCATED
ACROSS CNY. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA
THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, IMPACTING
AVP/BGM/ELM/ITH. AVP AND ELM SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE
WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BGM AND ITH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THESE TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT SNOW BANDS WILL IMPACT ITH INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS TO KEEP IFR CONDITIONS GOING AT ITH UNTIL
03Z. BGM MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THESE TAFS.
IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SNOW BANDS SET UP AND WITH
THEIR NARROW NATURE AND BGMS DISTANCE FROM THE FINGER LAKES, IT
IS CURRENTLY UNCLEAR IF THEY WILL BE NEAR BGM.
SYR AND RME SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SYR
MAY SEE PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR IFR VISBY FOR ITH/SYR/RME. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...LOW PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW
MOVING THROUGH.
MONDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJT/DK/ES
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JTC
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