755
FXUS61 KBGM 210825
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
325 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NY TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION. THE
WEEKEND WILL SEE A WELCOME PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
325 AM UPDATE:
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C,
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE
STRENGTH OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT WITH HIGH SLRS (20-25:1), A
FLUFFY ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA; FROM
NORTHERN SENECA-CAYUGA-WESTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES. THERE WAS
BRIEF CONSIDERATION TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THOSE
AREAS, BUT WITH MOST OF THE SNOW HAVING ALREADY FALLEN, COMBINED
WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS, FELT
THAT ISSUING AN ADVISORY WAS NOT NECESSARY. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CLOSER TO THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME TO
MENTION THAT SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF. THAT BEING SAID, WITH THE FLOW REMAINING WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY, ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-CATSKILLS. TODAY WILL BE
THE LAST DAY OF THIS COLD STRETCH WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL (OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
POSSIBLE), SO IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS OUTSIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL ALSO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. AS A
RESULT, WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE LEFT
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH/CLOSER TO THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.
WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS AND
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
(ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE, WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOME SLOW MELTING OF
THE EXISTING SNOWPACK.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
330 PM UPDATE...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND SKIRTING ACROSS OUR AREA COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE OF SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY,
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER LARGELY DRY DAY SUNDAY. SUNSHINE
LOOKS TO BE MORE LIMITED, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
UPWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE UPPER 30S. A FEW
VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NE PA WHERE MORE SUNSHINE CAN MIX IN WITH
THE CLOUDS COULD REACH 40 DEGREES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
330 PM UPDATE...
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL EURO AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING, WHILE THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF MONDAY. THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING EVEN
MORE INTO THE MID 30S AND MID 40S MONDAY, A MIX OF RAIN AND WET
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. AS A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK LOOKS MORE ACTIVE BUT
FEATURES QUICK-MOVING SYSTEMS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
THE MID 40S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE
WYOMING VALLEY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST- NORTHWESTERLY IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO AROUND -7 DEGREES C, SO THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY LOCATED
ACROSS CNY. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA
THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRING
MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KAVP (ALTHOUGH KAVP MAY SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS
LATER THIS MORNING). WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END FOR MOST TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON, LINGERING
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD (AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY). THERE
WILL ALSO STILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES PRESENT
IN THE AFTERNOON AT KSYR AND POSSIBLY KITH.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW POSSIBILITY OF SEEING OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS AT KRME WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BJG
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