357
FXUS61 KBGM 211459
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA TODAY. THE WEEKEND
WILL SEE A WELCOME PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
945 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT AT THIS TIME WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND
EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
ACROSS CNY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. KEPT THIS
TREND GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CNY AS THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH LIKELY POPS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES REGION AND SYRACUSE METRO THIS EVENING.
540 AM UPDATE:
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE PRESENT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST/INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MOST OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THAT WAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS ALSO A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY CAYUGA LAKE.
FINALLY, FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS HAZLETON,
PA, SO ADDED MENTION OF FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WHEREVER WE DO
NOT HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
325 AM UPDATE:
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C,
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE
STRENGTH OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT WITH HIGH SLRS (20-25:1), A
FLUFFY ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA; FROM
NORTHERN SENECA-CAYUGA-WESTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES. THERE WAS
BRIEF CONSIDERATION TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THOSE
AREAS, BUT WITH MOST OF THE SNOW HAVING ALREADY FALLEN, COMBINED
WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS, FELT
THAT ISSUING AN ADVISORY WAS NOT NECESSARY.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF. THAT BEING SAID, WITH THE FLOW REMAINING WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY, ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-CATSKILLS. TODAY WILL BE
THE LAST DAY OF THIS COLD STRETCH WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL (OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
POSSIBLE), SO IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS OUTSIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL ALSO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. AS A
RESULT, WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE LEFT
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH/CLOSER TO THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.
WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS AND
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
(ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE, WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOME SLOW MELTING OF
THE EXISTING SNOWPACK.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
400 AM UPDATE...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER CANADA DIPS INTO OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS BRINGS A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AHEAD OF A WARMING TREND. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTLES IN ON MONDAY ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
TRACKS EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS
SOLUTION HOLDS ON TO PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, MEANWHILE EURO
AND CANADIAN SHOW A QUICKER EXIT. WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY, EXPECTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD IN NATURE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
400 AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY
FEATURE DROPS IN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW
FOLLOWS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS WITH LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A BRIEF RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A MORE PRONOUNCED SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND AN EXITING RIDGE. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION, BUT IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO TELL. REGARDLESS OUR REGION IS LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 30S AND
40S DURING THE DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRING
MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KRME. WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FOR
MOST TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON, LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD (AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY). THERE WILL ALSO STILL
BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AT KSYR AND POSSIBLY KITH.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW POSSIBILITY OF SEEING OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS AT KRME WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/DK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BJG
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