753
FXUS61 KBGM 211711
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1211 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA TODAY. THE WEEKEND
WILL SEE A WELCOME PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
945 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT AT THIS TIME WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND
EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
ACROSS CNY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. KEPT THIS
TREND GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CNY AS THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH LIKELY POPS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES REGION AND SYRACUSE METRO THIS EVENING.
540 AM UPDATE:
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE PRESENT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST/INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MOST OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THAT WAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS ALSO A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY CAYUGA LAKE.
FINALLY, FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS HAZLETON,
PA, SO ADDED MENTION OF FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WHEREVER WE DO
NOT HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
325 AM UPDATE:
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C,
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE
STRENGTH OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT WITH HIGH SLRS (20-25:1), A
FLUFFY ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA; FROM
NORTHERN SENECA-CAYUGA-WESTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES. THERE WAS
BRIEF CONSIDERATION TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THOSE
AREAS, BUT WITH MOST OF THE SNOW HAVING ALREADY FALLEN, COMBINED
WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS, FELT
THAT ISSUING AN ADVISORY WAS NOT NECESSARY.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF. THAT BEING SAID, WITH THE FLOW REMAINING WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY, ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-CATSKILLS. TODAY WILL BE
THE LAST DAY OF THIS COLD STRETCH WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL (OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
POSSIBLE), SO IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS OUTSIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL ALSO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. AS A
RESULT, WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE LEFT
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH/CLOSER TO THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.
WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS AND
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
(ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE, WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOME SLOW MELTING OF
THE EXISTING SNOWPACK.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
12PM UPDATE
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND WEAK FRONTS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL NY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.THERE
WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING OVER NE PA, BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT IS
SEASONABLE, OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY WELL OFF TO THE NORTH, NEAR JAMES BAY.
THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA, BRINGING MUCH MILDER
WEATHER TO ROUND OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS; ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS, BUT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ESPECIALLY UP IN ONEIDA COUNTY, AS 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR -2C
TO -3C...BEFORE RISING MORE OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AREAWIDE...AND IT WILL ONLY DIP
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE
WET BULB TEMPERATURES DO RISE ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SO THIS SHOULD FACILITATE
PLENTY OF SNOW MELT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
12PM UPDATE
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MILD AND SHOWERY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS AND FURTHEST NORTH LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 30-35 TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BUT THE BLENDED ENSEMBLE (NBM) KEEPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS (RAIN/SNOW MIX) ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS STILL
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS
POISED TO MOVE THROUGH CNY AND NE PA SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MORE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT REENTERING
THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRING
MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KRME. WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FOR
MOST TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON, LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD (AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY). THERE WILL ALSO STILL
BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AT KSYR AND POSSIBLY KITH.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW POSSIBILITY OF SEEING OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS AT KRME WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/DK
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJG
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