198
FXUS61 KBGM 220723
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
223 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGELY DRY START TO THE
WEEKEND. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF
THE NY THRUWAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
940 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS AREA BASED ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW RE-DEVELOPING
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
645 PM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CNY, WITH THE HEAVIEST BATCH
OFF THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS. NO WHOLESALE CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND MUCH REMAINS ON TRACK.
320 PM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS CNY WILL TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES AND THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE ON THE RISE
AS WELL TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP IN DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, CLIMBING FROM -16 DEGREES C THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR -10 DEGREES C THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND INTO NE PA, THEN RISING TO -6 TO -9
DEGREES C ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING
AND THE 850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN OVERHEAD, ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRIES NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY WILL DIMINISH EARLY
AND SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE THE
START OF A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THERE
CAN BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT,
BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE NYS THRUWAY AND STRUGGLE TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIER PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. NOT AS COLD TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ANY INTERVAL OF NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS BRIEF
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED
TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE LOW END.
WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT AROUND TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY. AN ADDED EFFECT WILL BE TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20'S. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF
THE REGION MONDAY ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER. WELCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE 40'S MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN ONLY FALLING INTO 30'S
MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROLLS THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT LOOK A BIT STRONGER HERE SO THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE A BIT HIGHER. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING YET ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEF INTERVALS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR BEHIND
EACH SYSTEM BUT THE PATTERN IS VERY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP GENERALLY IN
THE 40'S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS AROUND 30. GIVEN SLIGHT
CHANGES IN THE TIMING COULD OCCUR WITH PRECIPITATION, KEPT POPS
IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME.
A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO COME INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LAKE RESPONSE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WOULD OCCUR IN THIS CASE HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT SYR AND RME
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
CAN PERSIST AROUND SYR RME ITH AND BGM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MVFR TO FUEL ALT
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. AVP IS
EXPECTED TO BE VFR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME BORDERLINE
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY, WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOW POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTIONS AT
RME FROM LOWER CEILINGS/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS AT RME
WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK/JTC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES/MPK
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