247
FXUS61 KBGM 221038
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
538 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SHORT WAVE MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY. LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WARMING
TREND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
530 AM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE MADE TWEAKS TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRY AIR RETURNS.
330 AM UPDATE...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING. A RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST
SHIFTING FLOW WESTERLY SOON AFTER SUNRISE. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT AND TAPPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. THIS SHIFT WILL ALSO ADVECT
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING
-6 TO -8 DEGREES C BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BACK TO THE REGION. NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE
CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. OTHERWISE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER INTO THE REGION WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WONT BE QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ANY INTERVAL OF NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS BRIEF
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED
TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE LOW END.
WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT AROUND TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY. AN ADDED EFFECT WILL BE TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20'S. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF
THE REGION MONDAY ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER. WELCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE 40'S MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN ONLY FALLING INTO 30'S
MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROLLS THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT LOOK A BIT STRONGER HERE SO THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE A BIT HIGHER. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING YET ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEF INTERVALS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR BEHIND
EACH SYSTEM BUT THE PATTERN IS VERY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP GENERALLY IN
THE 40'S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS AROUND 30. GIVEN SLIGHT
CHANGES IN THE TIMING COULD OCCUR WITH PRECIPITATION, KEPT POPS
IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME.
A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO COME INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LAKE RESPONSE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WOULD OCCUR IN THIS CASE HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPPER OFF THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS SNEAK BACK IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AT RME
AND SYR.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOW POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTIONS AT
RME FROM LOWER CEILINGS/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS AT RME
WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES
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