473
FXUS61 KBGM 221952
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
252 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING NORTH OF THE NY
THRUWAY. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL NY WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A STEADY WARMING
TREND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING, AND INTO THE
40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
1045 AM UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES HAVE LIFTED NORTH AND ENDED, AND SKIES ARE
CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 20S TO MID-30S.
530 AM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE MADE TWEAKS TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRY AIR RETURNS.
330 AM UPDATE...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING. A RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST
SHIFTING FLOW WESTERLY SOON AFTER SUNRISE. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT AND TAPPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. THIS SHIFT WILL ALSO ADVECT
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING
-6 TO -8 DEGREES C BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BACK TO THE REGION. NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE
CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. OTHERWISE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER INTO THE REGION WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WONT BE QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
250 PM UPDATE...
MONDAY STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH PA AND NY. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE 0C AND DRY AIR ADVECTING IN, THERE WILL BE SOME
SUNSHINE AS WELL. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE
WARMEST THAT WE HAVE SEEN SINCE AT LEAST EARLY JANUARY OR EVEN
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. GIVEN THAT THERE IS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME MODELS HAVE SURFACE
DEW POINTS RISING TO OR ABOVE FREEZING, THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THAT CAN LIMIT WARMING IF
WE DO GET SOME ADVECTION FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP. WITH
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE STRATUS LIKELY AS WELL AS A CHANCE AT SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DONT LOOK TO
GET WARM ENOUGH TO EXPERIENCE A LOT OF SNOW MELT AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, BUT SOME RISES IN THE RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ICE IS STILL PRETTY THICK IN SPOTS SO TOO MUCH OF A
RISE MAY BREAK THINGS UP A BIT, ESPECIALLY AFTER A WARMER DAY
MONDAY THAT COULD WEAKEN THE ICE. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THE FLOW REMAINING
MOSTLY ZONAL SO TEMPERATURES DONT FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
250 PM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM IS PRETTY ACTIVE WITH ZONAL FLOW BRINGING IN A
SHORTWAVE ALMOST EVERY DAY BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
ANYTHING MAJOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STAY
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE INTO FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY
FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING. FRIDAY HAS A DEEPER TROUGH THAT
TRIES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW. MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE CENTRAL US AND MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE
TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER IT IS CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR
MORE SNOW OR AN INLAND TRACK KEEPING US WARMER WITH RAIN.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT AVP, ELM, BGM AND LIKELY
ITH. FURTHER NORTH, ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
LOWERING, MVFR CIGS TO RME BY AROUND 06Z TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, THEN TO SYR BY AROUND SUNRISE (11-12Z) SUNDAY. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THESE TWO TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KT, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: LINGERING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
SYR/RME; VFR ELSEWHERE. (MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE)
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)
TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DRY AND VFR (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)
THURSDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
(MODERATE CONFIDENCE)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...ES/MJM
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MJM
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