066
FXUS61 KBGM 230733
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
233 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING NORTH OF THE
NY THRUWAY. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL NY WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A WARMING
TREND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING, AND INTO THE
40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH ON AND OFF SHOWER CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
620 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON-TRACK THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING JUST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST,
SO ALIGNED HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTING THIS WAVE
TO KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, MOSTLY NORTH OF THE NYS
THRUWAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE
LIGHT, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY,
BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONEIDA, NORTHERN
MADISON AND ONONDAGA COUNTY.
313 PM UPDATE
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER THE REGION. A FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT
BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT SOUTH TO THE NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD NOT PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT, WITH
THE TWIN TIERS AND NORTHEAST PA REMAINING DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 10S TO LOWER 20S.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST, UNDER 10-12 MPH
SUNDAY FEATURES A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHIFTS WEST-NORTHWEST AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND -9C...THERE SHOULD INITIATE A WEAK
LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT IN OUR CWA; A DUSTING TO LOCALLY 2
INCHES NORTH OF I-90. THE TWIN TIERS AND NE PA START THE DAY OFF
WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE MORNING, BUT CLOUDS INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
REGION. WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIGHT BETWEEN 6-15 MPH AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE TWIN
TIERS AND NE PA. IT WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY SUNDAY
NIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 10S TO
MID-20S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROLLS MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER. AS A RESULT THE CHANCES FOR A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE LOWERED A BIT. ANY QPF OR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT. GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH MONDAY NIGHT AND
RISE INTO THE 40'S TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE WINDOW FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY SHORT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A SHORT STAY WEDNESDAY. WITH CONTINUED
WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
40'S AFTER STARTING OUT NEAR 30. NOT MUCH FALL IN TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT SO ANY SUB FREEZING SURFACE AIR LINGERING
WOULD RESULT IN A FEW PATCHES OF FREEZING RAIN. REGARDLESS,
TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKLY TO AROUND 40 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOK PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
A QUICK SHOT OF NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO OPEN THE
CHANCES FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE 20'S AND 30'S. YET ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TRACK TO OUR NORTH.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SYR AND RME, BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A
WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW LATE MORNING
WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER ITH AND BGM TO DROP
CEILINGS TO MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS AT ELM. OTHERWISE AVP IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: LINGERING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
SYR/RME/ITH/BGM; VFR ELSEWHERE. (MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE)
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)
TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DRY AND VFR (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)
THURSDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
(MODERATE CONFIDENCE)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES/JTC
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