694
FXUS61 KBGM 231810
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN CENTRAL NY
TODAY WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP THE TWIN TIERS AND NORTHEAST PA DRY, BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW PASSING
SYSTEMS BRINGING ON AND OF SHOWER CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
1000 AM UPDATE
STRATUS CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
IN THE COOL NW FLOW. THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY AT THIS TIME, BUT EVEN HERE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING UP ACROSS THE I-90 CORRIDOR,
MOHAWK VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER NORTH...MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF UNDER 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
LATER TODAY. DID START TO TREND POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SOME OF THE CAMS SUCH AS THE 12/13Z
HRRR AND 09Z RAP ARE BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A BAND OF
RAIN--MIXED WITH WET SNOW DROPPING NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA IN
THIS TIME FRAME. 12Z NAM AND NAM NEST REMAIN DRIER, THE
CONSSHORT IS TRENDING HIGHER WITH POPS, AND WE'LL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THE 13Z AND 17Z NBM TREND FOR THIS PERIOD.
600 AM UPDATE...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INTO THE
AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES
REGION. OTHERWISE MADE THE USUAL CHANGES TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS USING CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
300 AM UPDATE...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE NYS
THRUWAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS
FROM ADVANCING FURTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO
FEATURES, THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATION IN SKY COVER ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. CENTRAL NY SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WHILE
NORTHEAST PA WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THIS SHORT
WAVES PASSES TO OUR EAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN BEHIND WITH
SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL NY. CLOUDS ALSO BEGIN TO ADVANCE FURTHER INTO THE REGION AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
DUSTING TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES MAINLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER CENTRAL NY, WHILE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER NE PA. OTHERWISE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN ON MONDAY BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
THE REGION AS FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
WARM ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING A QUIET PRECIP FREE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROLLS MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER. AS A RESULT THE CHANCES FOR A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE LOWERED A BIT. ANY QPF OR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT. GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH MONDAY NIGHT AND
RISE INTO THE 40'S TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE WINDOW FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY SHORT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A SHORT STAY WEDNESDAY. WITH CONTINUED
WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
40'S AFTER STARTING OUT NEAR 30. NOT MUCH FALL IN TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT SO ANY SUB FREEZING SURFACE AIR LINGERING
WOULD RESULT IN A FEW PATCHES OF FREEZING RAIN. REGARDLESS,
TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKLY TO AROUND 40 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOK PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
A QUICK SHOT OF NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO OPEN THE
CHANCES FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE 20'S AND 30'S. YET ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TRACK TO OUR NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
1 PM UPDATE
LIGHT, BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVER SYR AND RME THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING TO FLURRIES
AND ENDING THIS EVENING. A WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
OVER ITH AND BGM TO DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WELL....AND EVENTUALLY INTO ELM AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED FALL TO MVFR FUEL ALT AT
RME AND BGM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH RISING CIG HEIGHTS AFTER 07-09Z LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND PUSH THE
LOWER CLOUD BASES OUT OF THE REGION. OUR TAF SITES RETURN TO VFR
BETWEEN 07-11Z...EXCEPT RME WAITS UNTIL 12-14Z MONDAY.
AVP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW
HOURS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 10-20 KTS FOR MOST TAF SITES.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST AFTER THE END
OF THIS 18Z TAF PERIOD; STARTING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT SYR AND RME, THEN DROPPING SOUTH TO ELM, ITH AND
BGM...AND EVENTUALLY AVP. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL TO BE BETWEEN 40-45 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON: VFR EXPECTED (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR BECOMING MVFR OVERNIGHT (MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE)
TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)
WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. LINGERING MORNING CIG
RESTRICTIONSPOSSIBLE BUT BECOMING VFR THROUGH THE DAY
(MODERATE CONFIDENCE)
THURSDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
(MODERATE CONFIDENCE)
FRIDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTION
(MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MJM
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