343
FXUS61 KBGM 261801
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
201 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TODAY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK AND BRING WARMER CONDITIONS, BUT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
940 AM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. BLENDED IN THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INTO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE DOING
OKAY, BUT DEW POINTS WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW SO, SO
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
625 AM UPDATE:
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
FORECASTED AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING IT WELL.
SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXPAND POPS EASTWARD FOR THE INCOMING SNOW SHOWERS.
330 AM UPDATE:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AROUND
50DM IN CENTRAL NY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. STRONG
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE CLOSE TO 100 J/KG WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE HEAVY SNOW OR GRAUPEL
SHOWERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW
CLAPS OF THUNDER IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. HIGH MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TODAY, BUT IF RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH, THEN A QUICK HALF
INCH TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SNOW SHOWERS. GRADUAL CLEARING IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.
RIDGING AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START TAKING HOLD ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MOST AREAS AND EVEN A
FEW SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
335 AM UPDATE...
AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION, A LAGGING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH COOL, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW, THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. THIS WAVE
WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER CNY. CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE
REGION WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND EVEN
JUST SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND N. ONEIDA. DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS
INDICATED BY THE CMC GUIDANCE THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE
IS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AREAS WHERE MAINLY SNOW IS OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
FRIDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND SHOWERS DOES
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS THE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE BRINGS IN THE SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THE TIMING OF FRONT WILL CERTAINLY BE A FACTOR IN HOW QUICKLY
CONDITIONS WARM UP AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO VARY GREATLY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THOSE IN NORTH-CENTRAL NY WILL FALL SHORT OF THE 50S
WHILE SOME LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS IN NORTHEASTERN PA WILL JUST
EXCEED 60. AREAS THAT DRY OUT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT
BUT PRECIPITATION AND THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZIER BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, THE NATIONAL BLEND
OF MODELS (NBM) WAS FAVORED FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
335 AM UPDATE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR
OR NORTH OF THE REGION, WHICH CONTINUES THE TREND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION MORE NORTH SATURDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. A LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH NEAR THE REGION AND WILL FORCE THE FRONT NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A DRY SLOT WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FOR SOME AS IT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK. SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. IF THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT TRENDS SLOWER, THEN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE UNDER THE MILDER CONDITIONS. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES OUT TO SEA, BUT SINCE SOME GUIDANCE IS SLOWER WITH
ITS DEPARTURE, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS
COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN.
FOR MOST OF THE LONG-TERM, NBM GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED FOR POPS AND
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AS THE TIMING OF THE MANY FEATURES IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DID SEEM TO LAG BEHIND UPDATED
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR POPS. A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, NBM, AND CONSALL (BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE) WAS USED. POPS WERE ALSO CAPPED AT THE LIKELY
CATEGORY (<75%).
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR. SOME LOCATIONS WILL MAX
OUT IN THE 70S WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES STAY FAIRLY MILD. AFTER
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S AND 50S
AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VARYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. A MIX OF VFR,
MVFR AND BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH THE NY TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR OR WORSE
VISBY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH
SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AROUND RME. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS BY EVENING.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL/DK
AVIATION...DK
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