561
FXUS61 KBGM 261913
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TODAY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK AND BRING WARMER CONDITIONS, BUT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
940 AM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. BLENDED IN THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INTO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE DOING
OKAY, BUT DEW POINTS WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW SO, SO
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
625 AM UPDATE:
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
FORECASTED AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING IT WELL.
SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXPAND POPS EASTWARD FOR THE INCOMING SNOW SHOWERS.
330 AM UPDATE:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AROUND
50DM IN CENTRAL NY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. STRONG
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE CLOSE TO 100 J/KG WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE HEAVY SNOW OR GRAUPEL
SHOWERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW
CLAPS OF THUNDER IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. HIGH MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TODAY, BUT IF RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH, THEN A QUICK HALF
INCH TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SNOW SHOWERS. GRADUAL CLEARING IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.
RIDGING AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START TAKING HOLD ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MOST AREAS AND EVEN A
FEW SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO OVERRUN THE FRONT TO
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW
LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40'S AND 50'S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TREND AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY, MODELED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST WE COULD GET INTO THE 70'S FOR HIGHS AS THE YO-YO PATTERN
CONTINUES. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT A BIT NORTH ALONG
WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A
SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS. WHILE CURRENT
FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN THE 40'S SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WEDGES LOW LEVEL COLD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MOHAWK VALLEY ENOUGH FOR A
FREEZING RAIN CONCERN.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET. IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES FAR ENOUGH NORTH SOME INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY BE PRESENT AS WELL. THE FRONT FINALLY LOOKS TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HOWEVER, QPF LOOKS SPREAD OUT AND NOT
EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME. THE STANDARD DEVIATION SPREAD OF THE ECMWF
ENS SUITE RISES TO ABOUT 5-8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SO, HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO OUR NBM GUIDANCE WITH
ANOTHER WARM DAY MONDAY THEN COOLER AND CLEARING FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VARYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. A MIX OF VFR,
MVFR AND BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH THE NY TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR OR WORSE
VISBY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH
SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AROUND RME. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS BY EVENING.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...DK/MPK
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