626
FXUS61 KBGM 270425
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1225 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATER TONIGHT
WILL LEAD TO A DRY AND MILDER DAY THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
BRING WARMER CONDITIONS, BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1220 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS FOR THE POPS TO COVER THE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THERE ARE A FEW BANDS OVER THE REGION WITH
THE MAIN BAND CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. WHERE THERE ARE SNOW SHOWERS, SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, MOST OF WHAT IS BEING
OBSERVED ON RADAR IS JUST FLURRIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS
DOING WELL AND ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR CHANGES.
600 PM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. ON-AND-OFF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF SOON AFTER SUNSET. AS A SHOWER PASSES OVER, AREAS MAY
RECEIVE A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE PASSING, AND
SHOULD ONLY LAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MINUTES. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AFTER SUNSET WILL CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE REST
OF THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IS BELOW.
355 PM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND AS THE SUN GOES DOWN, THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL START TO DIMINISH. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C, THERE CAN BE SOME LINGERING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES OVER
PORTIONS OF CNY UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO, THEN DRIER AIR AT THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS STARTS TO FILTER IN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TOMORROW LEADING TO A DRY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING BECOMING MIXED WITH AFTERNOON
CLOUDS. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A MILDER DAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
RH VALUES TOMORROW DO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30% ACROSS
NE PA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THESE LOW RH
VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
COULD ENHANCE ANY WILDFIRE SPREAD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE PA, SO
THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT, LEADING TO MOSTLY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FROM THE TWIN
TIERS ON NORTHWARD AND MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THERE
CAN BE SOME WET SNOW THAT MIXES IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNY, THE CATSKILLS AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO OVERRUN THE FRONT TO
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW
LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40'S AND 50'S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TREND AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY, MODELED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST WE COULD GET INTO THE 70'S FOR HIGHS AS THE YO-YO PATTERN
CONTINUES. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT A BIT NORTH ALONG
WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A
SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS. WHILE CURRENT
FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN THE 40'S SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WEDGES LOW LEVEL COLD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MOHAWK VALLEY ENOUGH FOR A
FREEZING RAIN CONCERN.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET. IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES FAR ENOUGH NORTH SOME INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY BE PRESENT AS WELL. THE FRONT FINALLY LOOKS TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HOWEVER, QPF LOOKS SPREAD OUT AND NOT
EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME. THE STANDARD DEVIATION SPREAD OF THE ECMWF
ENS SUITE RISES TO ABOUT 5-8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SO, HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO OUR NBM GUIDANCE WITH
ANOTHER WARM DAY MONDAY THEN COOLER AND CLEARING FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
800 PM UPDATE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT RME, SYR, ELM AND AVP,
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WITH RESTRICTIONS CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THESE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. ITH AND BGM HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
SCATTERED, INTERMITTENT IFR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 04Z THIS
EVENING. INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR THESE TWO SITES TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY. SNOW SHOWERS TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END BY 27/06-09Z.
DRIER AIR PUSHES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BETWEEN
ABOUT 05 TO 15 KTS MOST OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/KL
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...DK/MJM
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