983
FXUS61 KBGM 270732
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
332 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR TODAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER, SUNNY, AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
GIVEN THAT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH TONIGHT AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, LESS
THAN AN INCH, WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF I-81
AND IN FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TONIGHT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT MILD AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING
THE 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS, THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH
RAIN WILL EXTEND BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MANY WILL STAY DRY UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO OVERRUN THE FRONT TO
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW
LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40'S AND 50'S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TREND AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY, MODELED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST WE COULD GET INTO THE 70'S FOR HIGHS AS THE YO-YO PATTERN
CONTINUES. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT A BIT NORTH ALONG
WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A
SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS. WHILE CURRENT
FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN THE 40'S SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WEDGES LOW LEVEL COLD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MOHAWK VALLEY ENOUGH FOR A
FREEZING RAIN CONCERN.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET. IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES FAR ENOUGH NORTH SOME INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY BE PRESENT AS WELL. THE FRONT FINALLY LOOKS TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HOWEVER, QPF LOOKS SPREAD OUT AND NOT
EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME. THE STANDARD DEVIATION SPREAD OF THE ECMWF
ENS SUITE RISES TO ABOUT 5-8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SO, HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO OUR NBM GUIDANCE WITH
ANOTHER WARM DAY MONDAY THEN COOLER AND CLEARING FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
130 AM UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME SNOW FLURRIES
MAY BE OBSERVED AT ITH AND BGM FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BUT
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER RESTRICTIONS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT BY 12Z WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. GUSTS SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AND WIND DIRECTION MAY BE VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SETTLING BACK OUT OF THE WEST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT SOME CNY TERMINALS AFTER 00Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD FOR THIS UPDATE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL
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