873
FXUS61 KBGM 271332
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
932 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR TODAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
930 AM UPDATE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN GUSTS AND TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS BASED ON THE
CURRENT OBS, OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AT THIS TIME.
620 AM UPDATE...
THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE, SO SKY COVER
WAS DECREASED DURING THIS UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
330 AM UPDATE...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER, SUNNY, AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
GIVEN THAT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH TONIGHT AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, LESS
THAN AN INCH, WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF I-81
AND IN FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TONIGHT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT MILD AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING
THE 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS, THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH
RAIN WILL EXTEND BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MANY WILL STAY DRY UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
400 AM UPDATE...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW FRIDAY EVENING, AND SHOULD BE INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S RISING TO LOW TO MID 50S BY SUNRISE FOR
MOST. ONEIDA COUNTY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 40S AS THE SURGE OF
WARM AIR DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT SOMEWHERE AROUND THE FAR NORTHERN
BORDER OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE IS STILL UNSURE AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
IT WILL GO, BUT CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTHERN ONONDAGA
INTO CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY AS WHERE THE WARM AIR STOPS, WITH
UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER 40S TO THE NORTH.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DISCREPANCIES AS TO IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH, AND IF IT DOES,
HOW FAR SOUTH DOES IT GO SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CURRENTLY, IT RANGES FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TO THE NY/PA BORDER. THIS POSITIONING WILL ALSO DETERMINE TEMPS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE FROM THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS, NBM GUIDANCE WAS RELIED UPON, WHICH PUTS THE FRONT SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
TO THE NORTH AND LOW 50S TO THE SOUTH. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERRUNS THE FRONT,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE FINGER LAKES REGION SEEING 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES. THE SOUTHERN TIER CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE WHERE THE
TIGHTEST RAINFALL GRADIENT IS. A RANGE OF 0.3 TO 0.1 INCHES
SPANS THE NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN PORTION OF THESE COUNTIES, WITH
SOUTH INTO PA SEEING UP TO 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
430 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE HERE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US, AND HOW IT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE GREATLY VARIES ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW
PRESSURES SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS HOW THE 500MB TROUGH DEVELOPS, AND THUS THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS THE
500MB TROUGH NEUTRAL TO POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY,
WHILE THE EURO HAS THE 500MB TROUGH DIGGING SHARPER INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL US AND TILTING MORE NEGATIVELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING, WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
AND PRECIP WILL VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION YOU
LOOK AT, WITH A 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN HIGHS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER ON MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO. BECAUSE OF THE
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP, NBM
GUIDANCE WAS USED, WHICH SKEWS A BIT TOWARD THE GFS AND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL CREEP INTO
THE REGION DURING THE MID-WEEK, BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
620 AM UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND EVEN COVERAGE SO
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
THEN SUBSIDE AROUND 06Z. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY VARY LATER THIS
EVENING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS TONIGHT AT RME.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD TODAY, ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHEASTERN PA. FROM STATE OFFICIALS, FINE FUELS ARE DRY
BUT DRYNESS LEVELS ARE ABOVE RFW THRESHOLDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN 20 AND 30% THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BUT NOT OVERLY GUSTY AS PEAK GUSTS WILL BE
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. STILL, UNDER THESE CONDITIONS ANY FIRES
THAT START COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME CALMER OVERNIGHT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BTL
FIRE WEATHER...
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