561
FXUS61 KBGM 271800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR TODAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
930 AM UPDATE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN GUSTS AND TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS BASED ON THE
CURRENT OBS, OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AT THIS TIME.
620 AM UPDATE...
THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE, SO SKY COVER
WAS DECREASED DURING THIS UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
330 AM UPDATE...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER, SUNNY, AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
GIVEN THAT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH TONIGHT AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, LESS
THAN AN INCH, WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF I-81
AND IN FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TONIGHT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT MILD AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING
THE 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS, THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH
RAIN WILL EXTEND BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MANY WILL STAY DRY UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SETUP NEAR OR OVER OUR REGION WITH A
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
SATURDAY. MODELED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUGGEST WE COULD GET
INTO THE 70'S FOR HIGHS AS THE YO-YO PATTERN CONTINUES. THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT A BIT NORTH ALONG WITH THE FOCUS FOR
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A SLIGHT SHIFT
SOUTHWARD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
FALL IN THE 40'S WITH MORE LOCATIONS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET. IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES FAR ENOUGH NORTH SOME INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY BE PRESENT AS WELL MONDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
HIGHLY SHEARED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. SO IF WE DO GET SOME
INSTABILITY AS THE ECMWF SUITE SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WOULD EXIST. THE FRONT FINALLY LOOKS TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY WINDOW.
THE GFS/GEFS CONTINUE TO BE MUCH FASTER PUSHING THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. EVEN WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS,
RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME.
LINGERED CLOUDS ON TUESDAY A BIT LONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE BASED ON
THE TYPICAL NW FLOW PATTERN. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
30'S TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO START ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE IN
THURSDAY. GFS IS A COLD OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME 3/27 12Z.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20
KNOTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BROKEN CEILINGS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY BETWEEN 01-06Z. GIVEN THE SPOTTY COVERAGE,
SHOWERS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW, BUT RME AND SYR LOOK
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, RESTRICTIONS BOTH IN TERMS OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE, THERE CAN BE SOME BORDERLINE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
LLWS FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST AT RME AND ITH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
FORECAST TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR UNTIL SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING
MAINLY VFR.
FIRE WEATHER
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD TODAY, ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHEASTERN PA. FROM STATE OFFICIALS, FINE FUELS ARE DRY
BUT DRYNESS LEVELS ARE ABOVE RFW THRESHOLDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN 20 AND 30% THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BUT NOT OVERLY GUSTY AS PEAK GUSTS WILL BE
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. STILL, UNDER THESE CONDITIONS ANY FIRES
THAT START COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME CALMER OVERNIGHT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL/DK
FIRE WEATHER...
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