215
FXUS61 KBGM 280532
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
132 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDS GRADUALLY BUILD IN THIS EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PRODUCES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1200 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO POPS. EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE QUITE DRY, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES WERE TOUCHED
UP TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS WHICH ALSO DID RESULT
IN SMALL CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED LOWS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
WAS DOING WELL.
900 PM UPDATE...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING. KBGM RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS, BUT
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING 20 TO NEAR 30 DEGREES,
WITH CURRENT DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 10S. THINGS ARE STARTING TO
SLOWLY MOISTEN UP, BUT AM ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 2 AM FOR PORTIONS OF
CNY, WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO EXPECTED.
MINOR TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST DATA FOR
FRIDAY'S FORECAST...THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING
THE INCOMING RAIN...WITH THE HRRR AND 3KM NAM BEING FASTER,
BRINGING SHOWERS IN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER MEMBERS
SLOWER, HOLDING OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
DRY POCKET OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, SO THE LATER TIMING COULD
BE MORE ON TRACK.
400 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THIS EVENING AND SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A QUICK-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, SO SHOWERS WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE, MAINLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD. MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
01-06Z. SHOWERS CAN MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNY, THE CATSKILLS AND TOWARD
THE TUG HILL, BUT LITTLE, IF ANY, ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S, WITH
MID 20S TOWARD THE TUG HILL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN EARLY TOMORROW LEADING
TO A DRY START TO THE DAY. SOME SUNSHINE EARLY WILL FADE BEHIND
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL START TO BREAK OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO TOMORROW EVENING. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME PLACES IN
THE WYOMING VALLEY AND DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY IN NE PA NEARING
60 DEGREES. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THOUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD, SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT, AND LOOK TO BE
MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. A WIDE RANGE IN LOW
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY FROM
THE LOW 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NON-
DIURNAL IN NATURE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR, RISING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH WAA FALLING SHORT OF THE AREA
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH LOWS FROM THE LOW 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW 30S IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY, THERE CAN BE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SETUP NEAR OR OVER OUR REGION WITH A
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
SATURDAY. MODELED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUGGEST WE COULD GET
INTO THE 70'S FOR HIGHS AS THE YO-YO PATTERN CONTINUES. THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT A BIT NORTH ALONG WITH THE FOCUS FOR
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A SLIGHT SHIFT
SOUTHWARD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
FALL IN THE 40'S WITH MORE LOCATIONS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET. IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES FAR ENOUGH NORTH SOME INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY BE PRESENT AS WELL MONDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
HIGHLY SHEARED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. SO IF WE DO GET SOME
INSTABILITY AS THE ECMWF SUITE SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WOULD EXIST. THE FRONT FINALLY LOOKS TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY WINDOW.
THE GFS/GEFS CONTINUE TO BE MUCH FASTER PUSHING THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. EVEN WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS,
RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME.
LINGERED CLOUDS ON TUESDAY A BIT LONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE BASED ON
THE TYPICAL NW FLOW PATTERN. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
30'S TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO START ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE IN
THURSDAY. GFS IS A COLD OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME 3/27 12Z.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
AFTER 21Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE FRONT AND SHOWERS, CEILING WILL FALL INTO IFR
AT ALL CENTRAL NY TERMINALS AFTER 00Z. CEILINGS AT AVP WILL BE
HIGHER, ONLY FALLING INTO MVFR. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO
TO AROUND 4 MILES, BUT COULD BE LOWER FOR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
THAT MAY PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL BECOME BREEZIER AS WELL. SOME LIGHT GUSTS BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) WAS REMOVED
FROM THE TAFS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THIS PERIOD AS MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS DID NOT SUPPORT KEEPING IT IN THE TAFS.
HOWEVER, LLWS WILL RETURN NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. FOR
NOW, IT WAS ADDED TO AVP AND ELM BUT BEYOND 06Z, IT WILL SPREAD
TO OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING
MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL
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