925
FXUS61 KBGM 280747
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
347 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL START OUT DRY BUT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE WAVES
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE COOLING
BACK TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
345 AM UPDATE...
TODAY WILL START OUT DRY BUT MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NEPA PUSHING 60. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD, SHOWERS BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS QUICK TO SURGE NORTHWARD BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL NY. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH MOST
LOCATIONS DRYING OUT BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING STATIONARY, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NON-DIURNAL
AND WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WARMER AIR IS ADVECTED IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE WARMING UP. IN N. ONEIDA, THE
MERCURY WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BEFORE BOUNCING BACK INTO THE 40S.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NY ALL DAY SATURDAY BUT
DRIFTS SOUTH SLIGHTLY. AS IT DROPS SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY, SO WILL
THE AREA OF SHOWERS. WHILE THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF NY'S SOUTHERN TIER, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CNY. THERE WILL BE WEAK INSTABILITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MODELED MLCAPE IS ONLY AROUND 250 J/KG. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE STRONG
WAA, SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. THOSE UNDER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S. WITH SUCH A
SHARP GRADIENT, ANY VARIATION IN THE FRONT'S LOCATION WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES. NOT ONLY WILL CONDITIONS BE
QUITE WARM SOUTH OF THE FRONT, BUT THEY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS
WELL. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 15 MPH AS
GUSTS PEAK OVER 25 MPH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SETUP NEAR OR OVER OUR REGION WITH A
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
SATURDAY. MODELED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUGGEST WE COULD GET
INTO THE 70'S FOR HIGHS AS THE YO-YO PATTERN CONTINUES. THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT A BIT NORTH ALONG WITH THE FOCUS FOR
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A SLIGHT SHIFT
SOUTHWARD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
FALL IN THE 40'S WITH MORE LOCATIONS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET. IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES FAR ENOUGH NORTH SOME INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY BE PRESENT AS WELL MONDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
HIGHLY SHEARED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. SO IF WE DO GET SOME
INSTABILITY AS THE ECMWF SUITE SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WOULD EXIST. THE FRONT FINALLY LOOKS TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY WINDOW.
THE GFS/GEFS CONTINUE TO BE MUCH FASTER PUSHING THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. EVEN WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS,
RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME.
LINGERED CLOUDS ON TUESDAY A BIT LONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE BASED ON
THE TYPICAL NW FLOW PATTERN. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
30'S TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO START ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE IN
THURSDAY. GFS IS A COLD OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME 3/27 12Z.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
AFTER 21Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE FRONT AND SHOWERS, CEILING WILL FALL INTO IFR
AT ALL CENTRAL NY TERMINALS AFTER 00Z. CEILINGS AT AVP WILL BE
HIGHER, ONLY FALLING INTO MVFR. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO
TO AROUND 4 MILES, BUT COULD BE LOWER FOR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
THAT MAY PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL BECOME BREEZIER AS WELL. SOME LIGHT GUSTS BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) WAS REMOVED
FROM THE TAFS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THIS PERIOD AS MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS DID NOT SUPPORT KEEPING IT IN THE TAFS.
HOWEVER, LLWS WILL RETURN NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. FOR
NOW, IT WAS ADDED TO AVP AND ELM BUT BEYOND 06Z, IT WILL SPREAD
TO OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING
MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL
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