087
FXUS61 KBGM 281959
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
359 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL START OUT DRY BUT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE WAVES
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE COOLING
BACK TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
930 AM UPDATE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE FINGER LAKES DOWN INTO PORTIONS
OF NE PA, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO
GAVE WINDS AND GUSTS A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST TOMORROW, MAINLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY AND INTO NE PA, BLENDING IN
SOME CONSSHORT AND THE GFS AS THEY LOOKED A BIT TOO LOW. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
630 AM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES WERE TOUCHED UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER
MATCH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SKY COVER WAS ALSO UPDATED AS
MOST OF THE REGION IS UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HOWEVER AND
SKY COVER WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION.
345 AM UPDATE...
TODAY WILL START OUT DRY BUT MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NEPA PUSHING 60. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD, SHOWERS BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS QUICK TO SURGE NORTHWARD BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL NY. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH MOST
LOCATIONS DRYING OUT BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING STATIONARY, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NON-DIURNAL
AND WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WARMER AIR IS ADVECTED IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE WARMING UP. IN N. ONEIDA, THE
MERCURY WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BEFORE BOUNCING BACK INTO THE 40S.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NY ALL DAY SATURDAY BUT
DRIFTS SOUTH SLIGHTLY. AS IT DROPS SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY, SO WILL
THE AREA OF SHOWERS. WHILE THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF NY'S SOUTHERN TIER, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CNY. THERE WILL BE WEAK INSTABILITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MODELED MLCAPE IS ONLY AROUND 250 J/KG. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE STRONG
WAA, SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. THOSE UNDER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S. WITH SUCH A
SHARP GRADIENT, ANY VARIATION IN THE FRONT'S LOCATION WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES. NOT ONLY WILL CONDITIONS BE
QUITE WARM SOUTH OF THE FRONT, BUT THEY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS
WELL. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 15 MPH AS
GUSTS PEAK OVER 25 MPH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A RESULT WITH SPOTS GETTING WELL INTO THE 60'S. ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. QPF
THOUGH LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT UNDER A HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AFTER THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY STILL IS IN QUESTION BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHLY SHEARED. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE COULD ADVECT INTO NE
PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS WITH GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS. WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 70 AGAIN THEN FALL
SHARPLY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE IN THE 30'S AND 40'S.
A SLIGHT RETURN OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL FOR A
FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ONLY A QUICK VISITOR EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CHILL LOOKS SHORT
LIVED TUESDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 22Z-00Z AS A WARM FRONT STARTS
TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MVFR TO FUEL-ALT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST FOR AVP SO LOWER CIGS
WERE COVERED BY A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES NORTH AND STALLS OUT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NY LATER
TONIGHT, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM ITH ON SOUTH
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. ELM AND AVP ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME VFR WHILE ITH AND BGM REACH HIGH END MVFR, BUT A
PERIOD OF VFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. RME AND SYR ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY NEARBY. SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LEAD
TO IFR VISBY FOR A TIME AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ACROSS THE CNY TERMINALS TOMORROW TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF AND THE REST OF TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DRIFT AND
SHOWER COVERAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS IS EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS AT RME SHOW BORDERLINE
LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 09-10Z SO IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, IT
MAY BE ADDED IN THE NEXT UPDATE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL/DK
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