690
FXUS61 KBGM 282005
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
405 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ARRIVING THIS EVENING, SPREADING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE WAVES AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE COOLING BACK TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
400 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE
AROUND 200 J/KG OF MUCAPE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND TOWARD THE
MOHAWK VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR, SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL NY LATER TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE NYS THRUWAY, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED
NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NON-DIURNAL
WITH LOWS OCCURRING THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS. LOW
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA BOTTOMS OUT
BETWEEN THE LOW 40S AND LOW 50S BEFORE RISING.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY LOOKS TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AGAIN PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING. AS A
RESULT, PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA CAN START THE
DAY OFF LARGELY DRY BEFORE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
AS THE DAY GOES ON. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY SHOWING UP ON MOST MODEL GUIDANCE LATER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF TOMORROW NIGHT, ON AVERAGE
AROUND 200-300 J/KG FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NE PA AND THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF SHEAR, SO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DRIFT WHICH WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A CHALLENGE. AREAS WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOMORROW, THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NE PA, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, WITH SOME PARTS OF THE WYOMING VALLEY
AND DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY IN NE PA CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES! NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S, BUT AGAIN THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT, AND THEN AREAS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WILL BE
MUCH COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT, HOWEVER, THERE
MAY BE A DRY SLOT THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FOR A TIME LATER TOMORROW EVENING OR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S AND LOW 40S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 0.25"-0.50" FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD TO AROUND
ROUTE 20 IN CNY. FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH THERE CAN BE
0.50"-1.00" OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY
OVER ONEIDA COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A RESULT WITH SPOTS GETTING WELL INTO THE 60'S. ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. QPF
THOUGH LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT UNDER A HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AFTER THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY STILL IS IN QUESTION BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHLY SHEARED. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE COULD ADVECT INTO NE
PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS WITH GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS. WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 70 AGAIN THEN FALL
SHARPLY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE IN THE 30'S AND 40'S.
A SLIGHT RETURN OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL FOR A
FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ONLY A QUICK VISITOR EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CHILL LOOKS SHORT
LIVED TUESDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 22Z-00Z AS A WARM FRONT STARTS
TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MVFR TO FUEL-ALT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST FOR AVP SO LOWER CIGS
WERE COVERED BY A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES NORTH AND STALLS OUT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NY LATER
TONIGHT, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM ITH ON SOUTH
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. ELM AND AVP ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME VFR WHILE ITH AND BGM REACH HIGH END MVFR, BUT A
PERIOD OF VFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. RME AND SYR ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY NEARBY. SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LEAD
TO IFR VISBY FOR A TIME AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ACROSS THE CNY TERMINALS TOMORROW TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF AND THE REST OF TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DRIFT AND
SHOWER COVERAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS IS EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS AT RME SHOW BORDERLINE
LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 09-10Z SO IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, IT
MAY BE ADDED IN THE NEXT UPDATE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL/DK
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