321
FXUS61 KBGM 290220
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ARRIVING THIS EVENING, SPREADING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE WAVES AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE COOLING BACK TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
1015 PM UPDATE...
LATEST 00Z HRRR, 3KM NAM AND 23Z NBM ARE STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT NUDGES NORTH TO ABOUT PENN
YAN, ITHACA, TULLY AND COOPERSTOWN EARLY TO MID-MORNING, THEN
SLOWLY RETREATS SOUTH MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY AROUND 3PM
THE SHARP FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS
OF THE NY SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES FROM STEUBEN EAST TO BROOME
AND DELAWARE COUNTIES. PLACES SUCH AS PENN YAN, WATKINS GLEN,
ITHACA, CORTLAND, AND SHERBURNE ARE FORECAST TO SEE RAPID
TEMPERATURE DROPS, POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE 40S OR LOWER 50S ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. MADE SOME
RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE TWEAKS TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH THIS LATEST DATA. SYRACUSE, UTICA AND ROME ARE NOW FORECAST
TO BE STUCK IN THE 40S MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS AND COULD
PERHAPS JUST TOUCH 50 FOR A HIGH. ADDED IN SOME FOG LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
630 PM UPDATE...
WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH IT. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS FROM THE NY SOUTHERN TIER DOWN INTO NE PA.
THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NEAR I-90 BY DAYBREAK AS A FEW
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE EASTWARD ALONG IT FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. A VERY TRICKY, COMPLEX FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE, SUCH AS EXACT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANY FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL MAKE
A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE HRRR AND NEAR
TERM NBM GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE DROPPING THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH ON SATURDAY, POSSIBLY CLOSER TO THE TWIN TIERS, HOWEVER
WAS NOT READY TO BUY INTO THAT TREND JUST YET, AS THE 3KM NAM
KEEPS IT FURTHER NORTH, AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST A FURTHER NORTH
FRONTAL POSITION (BASED ON OBS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL BE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS,
SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS LOW 50S.
MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND
VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW/MID-70S...AND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY REGION
IT SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S! THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS,
SUSQUEHANNA REGION AND SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE AND ADJUST THE FORECAST
AS NEEDED.
400 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE
AROUND 200 J/KG OF MUCAPE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND TOWARD THE
MOHAWK VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR, SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL NY LATER TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE NYS THRUWAY, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED
NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NON-DIURNAL
WITH LOWS OCCURRING THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS. LOW
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA BOTTOMS OUT
BETWEEN THE LOW 40S AND LOW 50S BEFORE RISING.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY LOOKS TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AGAIN PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING. AS A
RESULT, PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA CAN START THE
DAY OFF LARGELY DRY BEFORE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
AS THE DAY GOES ON. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY SHOWING UP ON MOST MODEL GUIDANCE LATER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF TOMORROW NIGHT, ON AVERAGE
AROUND 200-300 J/KG FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NE PA AND THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF SHEAR, SO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DRIFT WHICH WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A CHALLENGE. AREAS WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOMORROW, THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NE PA, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, WITH SOME PARTS OF THE WYOMING VALLEY
AND DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY IN NE PA CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES! NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S, BUT AGAIN THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT, AND THEN AREAS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WILL BE
MUCH COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT, HOWEVER, THERE
MAY BE A DRY SLOT THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FOR A TIME LATER TOMORROW EVENING OR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S AND LOW 40S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 0.25"-0.50" FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD TO AROUND
ROUTE 20 IN CNY. FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH THERE CAN BE
0.50"-1.00" OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY
OVER ONEIDA COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A RESULT WITH SPOTS GETTING WELL INTO THE 60'S. ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. QPF
THOUGH LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT UNDER A HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AFTER THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY STILL IS IN QUESTION BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHLY SHEARED. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE COULD ADVECT INTO NE
PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS WITH GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS. WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 70 AGAIN THEN FALL
SHARPLY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE IN THE 30'S AND 40'S.
A SLIGHT RETURN OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL FOR A
FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ONLY A QUICK VISITOR EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CHILL LOOKS SHORT
LIVED TUESDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
FUEL ALTERNATE RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING, BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR BY SATURDAY MORNING FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF KSYR AND KRME.
KSYR AND KRME WILL BE CLOSER TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THEREFORE RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY FOR THOSE
TWO LOCATIONS. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSYR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT
KRME THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND LASTING
UNTIL SATURDAY MID-MORNING. LESS CONFIDENCE IN SEEING LLWS AT
KSYR AND KRME, SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THOSE TWO TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJG
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