815
FXUS61 KBGM 290645
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
245 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ARRIVING THIS EVENING, SPREADING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE WAVES AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE COOLING BACK TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
1215 PM UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO TEMPS AND WINDS TO
BETTER MATCH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS DOING WELL.
1015 PM UPDATE...
LATEST 00Z HRRR, 3KM NAM AND 23Z NBM ARE STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT NUDGES NORTH TO ABOUT PENN
YAN, ITHACA, TULLY AND COOPERSTOWN EARLY TO MID-MORNING, THEN
SLOWLY RETREATS SOUTH MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY AROUND 3PM
THE SHARP FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS
OF THE NY SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES FROM STEUBEN EAST TO BROOME
AND DELAWARE COUNTIES. PLACES SUCH AS PENN YAN, WATKINS GLEN,
ITHACA, CORTLAND, AND SHERBURNE ARE FORECAST TO SEE RAPID
TEMPERATURE DROPS, POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE 40S OR LOWER 50S ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. MADE SOME
RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE TWEAKS TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH THIS LATEST DATA. SYRACUSE, UTICA AND ROME ARE NOW FORECAST
TO BE STUCK IN THE 40S MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS AND COULD
PERHAPS JUST TOUCH 50 FOR A HIGH. ADDED IN SOME FOG LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
630 PM UPDATE...
WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH IT. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS FROM THE NY SOUTHERN TIER DOWN INTO NE PA.
THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NEAR I-90 BY DAYBREAK AS A FEW
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE EASTWARD ALONG IT FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. A VERY TRICKY, COMPLEX FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE, SUCH AS EXACT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANY FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL MAKE
A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE HRRR AND NEAR
TERM NBM GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE DROPPING THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH ON SATURDAY, POSSIBLY CLOSER TO THE TWIN TIERS, HOWEVER
WAS NOT READY TO BUY INTO THAT TREND JUST YET, AS THE 3KM NAM
KEEPS IT FURTHER NORTH, AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST A FURTHER NORTH
FRONTAL POSITION (BASED ON OBS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL BE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS,
SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS LOW 50S.
MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND
VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW/MID-70S...AND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY REGION
IT SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S! THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS,
SUSQUEHANNA REGION AND SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE AND ADJUST THE FORECAST
AS NEEDED.
400 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE
AROUND 200 J/KG OF MUCAPE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND TOWARD THE
MOHAWK VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR, SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL NY LATER TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE NYS THRUWAY, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED
NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NON-DIURNAL
WITH LOWS OCCURRING THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS. LOW
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA BOTTOMS OUT
BETWEEN THE LOW 40S AND LOW 50S BEFORE RISING.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY LOOKS TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AGAIN PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING. AS A
RESULT, PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA CAN START THE
DAY OFF LARGELY DRY BEFORE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
AS THE DAY GOES ON. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY SHOWING UP ON MOST MODEL GUIDANCE LATER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF TOMORROW NIGHT, ON AVERAGE
AROUND 200-300 J/KG FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NE PA AND THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF SHEAR, SO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DRIFT WHICH WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A CHALLENGE. AREAS WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOMORROW, THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NE PA, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, WITH SOME PARTS OF THE WYOMING VALLEY
AND DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY IN NE PA CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES! NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S, BUT AGAIN THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT, AND THEN AREAS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WILL BE
MUCH COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT, HOWEVER, THERE
MAY BE A DRY SLOT THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FOR A TIME LATER TOMORROW EVENING OR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S AND LOW 40S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 0.25"-0.50" FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD TO AROUND
ROUTE 20 IN CNY. FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH THERE CAN BE
0.50"-1.00" OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY
OVER ONEIDA COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
245 AM UPDATE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ALL OF
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN MONDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A COLD
FRONT THEN COMES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING
ALONG RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
A LACK OF INSTABILITY, BUT DOES DEPICT A HIGH-SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW, THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS FOR MONDAY, BUT WE'LL KEEP MONITORING THE TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
245 AM UPDATE...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY, TUESDAY IS LEFT
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLER AIR FILTERING FROM CANADA AND
MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO MAY PRODUCE FROM MIXED SNOW AND RAIN
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, CUTTING OFF ANY LAKE EFFECT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE APPROACHING ON THURSDAY. SIMILARLY
TO THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS UPCOMING MONDAY, OUR AREA REMAINS
IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A BIT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE COMES BACK AROUND
FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE MILD FOR MOST DAYS, EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY, WHICH RESULTS FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
MONDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. DUE TO A
STALLED FRONT, RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER SYR AND RME FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD, THOUGH EARLY ON, COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE SCATTERED BEFORE BECOMING MORE STEADY LATER THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH SOME AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE REST OF THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH AT ITH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR
NOW.
AVP SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY DRY AND REMAIN VFR.
AT BGM AND ELM, CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE VFR THOUGH BOTH
LOCATIONS WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF EXPECTED MVFR CEILINGS.
MVFR IS EXPECTED AT ITH. WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER SYR AND
RME, IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 15 TO
25 KTS. THIS EVENING, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z AT MOST TERMINALS.
AT 2000FT AGL, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
OF 45 TO 50 KTS. AT SYR, WINDS WILL BE CALMER AT AROUND 30 KTS
AND RME IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BTL
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