015
FXUS61 KBGM 291734
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
134 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NON-SEVERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO
THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
930 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY TO ACCOUNT BETTER FOR THE
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THE HRRR WAS USED AS IT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
TEMPERATURES THE BEST BUT SEEMED A LITTLE WARM FOR THE AFTERNOON
SO THE NBM WAS BLENDED IN TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW
70S RATHER THAN UPPER 70S FOR PARTS OF NEPA.
630 AM UPDATE...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION. POPS WERE
UPDATED TO TO BETTER CAPTURE THE AREAS WHERE THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. FOG DEVELOPED AT ELMIRA THIS MORNING AND SEEMS TO BE
LOCKED IN. VISIBILITIES HAVE VARIED BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 2
TO 3 MILES. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ADDITIONAL MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO
BETTER MATCH THE LATEST OBSERVED CONDITIONS.
345 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATION FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO DROP
SOUTH AND WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE REGION SHORTLY.
MEANWHILE, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
OF CNY. THE FRONT WILL DROP EVEN FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF NY'S
SOUTHERN TIER. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH LATE TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING WEST AT THE UPPER
MIDWEST STATES, THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AND EVEN
PRODUCED LARGE HAIL LAST NIGHT. THE RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. WHILE THERE
IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY, THE HIGHER SHEAR COULD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER WERE ADDED
TO THE FORECAST BASED ON MUCAPE VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, THOUGH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE. WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE CONSTANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT, AREAS EAST OF I-81 WILL
HAVE LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
BUT WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS, FOG COULD DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THOSE ALONG THE FRONT, HIGHS WILL BE REACHED FAIRLY EARLY TODAY.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP. HIGHS NORTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WHILE THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. A COUPLE LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS ACROSS NEPA COULD SEE 80. THERE WILL BE A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT, SO TEMPERATURES COULD VARY
GREATLY, ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY BECOMES A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND COOL AIR SURGES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH, FORCING THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD
AS WELL. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S
THANKS TO WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
245 AM UPDATE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ALL OF
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN MONDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A COLD
FRONT THEN COMES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING
ALONG RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
A LACK OF INSTABILITY, BUT DOES DEPICT A HIGH-SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW, THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS FOR MONDAY, BUT WE'LL KEEP MONITORING THE TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
245 AM UPDATE...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY, TUESDAY IS LEFT
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLER AIR FILTERING FROM CANADA AND
MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO MAY PRODUCE FROM MIXED SNOW AND RAIN
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, CUTTING OFF ANY LAKE EFFECT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE APPROACHING ON THURSDAY. SIMILARLY
TO THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS UPCOMING MONDAY, OUR AREA REMAINS
IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A BIT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE COMES BACK AROUND
FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE MILD FOR MOST DAYS, EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY, WHICH RESULTS FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STALLED WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOW CIGS TO SYR, RME, AND AT
TIMES ITH THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY VFR SOUTH. SYR AND RME WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE LOW IFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z WITH POTENTIAL
TO LINGER TO 12Z BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND HELP
RAISE CIGS. ELM AND BGM MAY DEAL WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH NEAR IFR VIS.
A MARINE LAYER PUSHING IN THIS EVENING TRIES TO BRING MVFR CIGS
TO AVP WITH A LOW CHANCE AT BRIEF IFR BUT WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS, DOWNSLOPING OFF THE POCONOS SHOULD HELP KEEP CIGS HIGHER.
THE MVFR CIGS FROM THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO
BGM SO MVFR CIGS WERE ADDED FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR TO START, RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG
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