780
FXUS61 KBGM 291846
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
246 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WILL BE BROUGHT
TO AN ABRUPT END AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT. THOUGH MUCH COOLER TUESDAY, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK AGAIN BY THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
930 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY TO ACCOUNT BETTER FOR THE
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THE HRRR WAS USED AS IT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
TEMPERATURES THE BEST BUT SEEMED A LITTLE WARM FOR THE AFTERNOON
SO THE NBM WAS BLENDED IN TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW
70S RATHER THAN UPPER 70S FOR PARTS OF NEPA.
630 AM UPDATE...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION. POPS WERE
UPDATED TO TO BETTER CAPTURE THE AREAS WHERE THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. FOG DEVELOPED AT ELMIRA THIS MORNING AND SEEMS TO BE
LOCKED IN. VISIBILITIES HAVE VARIED BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 2
TO 3 MILES. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ADDITIONAL MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO
BETTER MATCH THE LATEST OBSERVED CONDITIONS.
345 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATION FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO DROP
SOUTH AND WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE REGION SHORTLY.
MEANWHILE, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
OF CNY. THE FRONT WILL DROP EVEN FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF NY'S
SOUTHERN TIER. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH LATE TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING WEST AT THE UPPER
MIDWEST STATES, THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AND EVEN
PRODUCED LARGE HAIL LAST NIGHT. THE RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. WHILE THERE
IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY, THE HIGHER SHEAR COULD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER WERE ADDED
TO THE FORECAST BASED ON MUCAPE VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, THOUGH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE. WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE CONSTANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT, AREAS EAST OF I-81 WILL
HAVE LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
BUT WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS, FOG COULD DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THOSE ALONG THE FRONT, HIGHS WILL BE REACHED FAIRLY EARLY TODAY.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP. HIGHS NORTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WHILE THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. A COUPLE LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS ACROSS NEPA COULD SEE 80. THERE WILL BE A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT, SO TEMPERATURES COULD VARY
GREATLY, ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY BECOMES A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND COOL AIR SURGES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH, FORCING THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD
AS WELL. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S
THANKS TO WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
245 PM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, AS A STRONGLY-
FORCED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS DESIGNATED OUR REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
A HIGH SHEAR/LIMITED CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY
(CAPE) SCENARIO IS TAKING SHAPE FOR MONDAY. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND FOR ALLOWING AN AXIS OF CAPE TO SNEAK IN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS SET UP, THE BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER LEAD WAVES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDER,
OR EVEN THEIR LEFTOVERS, WILL PREVENT HEATING FROM BEING FULLY
REALIZED. DESPITE THAT, LITTLE MAY BE NEEDED BECAUSE OF STRONG
FORCING. LIGHTNING COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED, BUT REGARDLESS, A
CONVECTIVE LINE OR TWO OF AT LEAST SHOWERS IN A HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT MAY MIX DOWN VERY GUSTY WINDS. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES REACH AROUND 50 KNOTS, AND CAPE VALUES AT LEAST IN THE
NAM MODEL MANAGE A FEW TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE TIME
FOR HEATING BEFORE THE FRONT. LOOKING AT IT FROM A PROBABILITY
STANDPOINT, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS DEPICTS 30-50 PERCENT
ODDS OF 500 J/KG OF CAPE UP A WILLIAMSPORT TO BINGHAMTON AXIS
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IF REALIZED WOULD BE PLENTY ENOUGH
GIVEN THE SHEAR TO CAUSE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. A SMALL CHANCE
EVEN EXTENDS UP TOWARDS UTICA AS WELL. WHILE THE WHOLE AREA IN
GENERAL HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK, THERE IS A GRADIENT IN
ODDS SIMPLY DUE TO TIMING/ABILITY FOR MORE HEATING THE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES. WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
TEMPERATURES, AND EVEN DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60, WILL DEFINITELY
PROVIDE MORE OF A LATE SPRING-EARLY SUMMER FEEL TO THINGS.
ABRUPT DROP OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT, EVEN INTO
THE 30S FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY HANG UP THE FRONT LONGER INTO THE
EVENING FOR WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-CATSKILLS-INTERSTATE 88
CORRIDOR WHICH COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDER GOING
LONGER THERE. HOWEVER, THE FRONT EVENTUALLY WINS OUT FOR DAWN
READINGS OF UPPER 20S-MID 30S TUESDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS, WILL
INTRODUCE OUR CHILLY TUESDAY. VERY DRY AIR MASS, WITH DEWPOINTS
CRASHING INTO THE TEENS, WILL SEND HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO AT LEAST
THE 30S PERCENT RANGE. PRIOR RAIN WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY
MINOR FIRE WEATHER THREAT, BUT GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE KEPT IN MIND. STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD MIX OUT FOR SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS
OF MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WIND SLACKENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING CONTRIBUTING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
245 PM UPDATE...
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
THOUGH WITH LIMITED IMPACTS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING IN WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE EARLY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S-LOWER 50S RANGE. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. THE USUAL AREAS PRONE TO
CHANNELED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW SUCH AS THE FINGER LAKES REGION,
AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
WEDNESDAY ITSELF WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, BECAUSE OF THE LOW
DEWPOINTS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. THIS AGAIN COULD CAUSE
A MINOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUE IF FINE FUELS LIKE DEAD GRASS AND
LEAF LITTER ARE ABLE TO DRY OUT ENOUGH. HOWEVER, A DECENT CHANCE
OF RAIN DOES ARRIVE ESPECIALLY BE EVENING, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT. AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW TRACKS INTO QUEBEC, A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THURSDAY FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN.
CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR NOW APPEAR PRETTY SMALL BECAUSE OF HOW
SMALL THAT WINDOW BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT WILL BE,
BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
AFTER A MILD NIGHT, THURSDAY HIGHS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO GET
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, INTO THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S. POST-FRONTAL AIR
WILL NOT BE AS COLD THIS TIME, HOWEVER, WITH FORECAST HIGHS OF
50S-NEAR 60 FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S-MID 50S SATURDAY. ONE REASON
FOR THE LESS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, IS GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL KEEP OUR PATTERN
UNSETTLED AS DISTURBANCES PASS WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STALLED WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOW CIGS TO SYR, RME, AND AT
TIMES ITH THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY VFR SOUTH. SYR AND RME WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE LOW IFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z WITH POTENTIAL
TO LINGER TO 12Z BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND HELP
RAISE CIGS. ELM AND BGM MAY DEAL WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH NEAR IFR VIS.
A MARINE LAYER PUSHING IN THIS EVENING TRIES TO BRING MVFR CIGS
TO AVP WITH A LOW CHANCE AT BRIEF IFR BUT WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS, DOWNSLOPING OFF THE POCONOS SHOULD HELP KEEP CIGS HIGHER.
THE MVFR CIGS FROM THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO
BGM SO MVFR CIGS WERE ADDED FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR TO START, RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL/MDP
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...AJG
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