763
FXUS61 KBGM 300013
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
813 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WILL BE BROUGHT
TO AN ABRUPT END AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT. THOUGH MUCH COOLER TUESDAY, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AGAIN BY THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
630 PM UPDATE...
QUITE THE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE WARM FRONT SITTING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. UPPER 60S REMAIN
IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WHILE TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW 30S. FOR THIS UPDATE, ADJUSTED HOURLY
AND MINIMUM TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND UPDATED HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE. THIS MOSTLY PUT LOWER TEMPS IN THE FINGER LAKES. POPS
ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
250 PM UPDATE...
WITH A STALLED WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES, THERE IS AN
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH 60S AND 70S ON THE
NY/PA BORDER AND DOWN IN THE LOW 40S AROUND ITHACA. A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH IS PROPAGATING THROUGH CANADA AND AS IT PASSES TO
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH
SOUTH A FEW MILES BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF INTO
LABRADOR CANADA. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS TONIGHT.
WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF TO THE
EAST TOMORROW, THE WARM FRONT WILL SURGE TO THE NORTH WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (OUTSIDE OF THE CATSKILLS
AND POCONOS WHERE THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLS). HIGHS WERE
LOWERED A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT DOES LOOK TO BE
PRETTY CLOUDY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE SOME
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS SIMILAR TO TODAY KEEPING THINGS A LITTLE
COOLER THAN MODELED.
SUNDAY NIGHT, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A NEW SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FORM AROUND
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTING
IN AT 850 MB AND A NOSE OF A 250 MB JET COUPLED WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES.
GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND THE CAPE THAT EXIST
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS TALL AND SKINNY, SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
STABLE AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MIXING AND THE
LACK OF CAPE WILL LOWER HAIL THREAT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
245 PM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, AS A STRONGLY-
FORCED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS DESIGNATED OUR REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
A HIGH SHEAR/LIMITED CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY
(CAPE) SCENARIO IS TAKING SHAPE FOR MONDAY. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND FOR ALLOWING AN AXIS OF CAPE TO SNEAK IN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS SET UP, THE BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER LEAD WAVES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDER,
OR EVEN THEIR LEFTOVERS, WILL PREVENT HEATING FROM BEING FULLY
REALIZED. DESPITE THAT, LITTLE MAY BE NEEDED BECAUSE OF STRONG
FORCING. LIGHTNING COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED, BUT REGARDLESS, A
CONVECTIVE LINE OR TWO OF AT LEAST SHOWERS IN A HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT MAY MIX DOWN VERY GUSTY WINDS. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES REACH AROUND 50 KNOTS, AND CAPE VALUES AT LEAST IN THE
NAM MODEL MANAGE A FEW TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE TIME
FOR HEATING BEFORE THE FRONT. LOOKING AT IT FROM A PROBABILITY
STANDPOINT, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS DEPICTS 30-50 PERCENT
ODDS OF 500 J/KG OF CAPE UP A WILLIAMSPORT TO BINGHAMTON AXIS
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IF REALIZED WOULD BE PLENTY ENOUGH
GIVEN THE SHEAR TO CAUSE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. A SMALL CHANCE
EVEN EXTENDS UP TOWARDS UTICA AS WELL. WHILE THE WHOLE AREA IN
GENERAL HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK, THERE IS A GRADIENT IN
ODDS SIMPLY DUE TO TIMING/ABILITY FOR MORE HEATING THE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES. WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
TEMPERATURES, AND EVEN DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60, WILL DEFINITELY
PROVIDE MORE OF A LATE SPRING-EARLY SUMMER FEEL TO THINGS.
ABRUPT DROP OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT, EVEN INTO
THE 30S FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY HANG UP THE FRONT LONGER INTO THE
EVENING FOR WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-CATSKILLS-INTERSTATE 88
CORRIDOR WHICH COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDER GOING
LONGER THERE. HOWEVER, THE FRONT EVENTUALLY WINS OUT FOR DAWN
READINGS OF UPPER 20S-MID 30S TUESDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS, WILL
INTRODUCE OUR CHILLY TUESDAY. VERY DRY AIR MASS, WITH DEWPOINTS
CRASHING INTO THE TEENS, WILL SEND HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO AT LEAST
THE 30S PERCENT RANGE. PRIOR RAIN WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY
MINOR FIRE WEATHER THREAT, BUT GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE KEPT IN MIND. STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD MIX OUT FOR SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS
OF MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WIND SLACKENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING CONTRIBUTING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
245 PM UPDATE...
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
THOUGH WITH LIMITED IMPACTS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING IN WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE EARLY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S-LOWER 50S RANGE. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. THE USUAL AREAS PRONE TO
CHANNELED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW SUCH AS THE FINGER LAKES REGION,
AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
WEDNESDAY ITSELF WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, BECAUSE OF THE LOW
DEWPOINTS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. THIS AGAIN COULD CAUSE
A MINOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUE IF FINE FUELS LIKE DEAD GRASS AND
LEAF LITTER ARE ABLE TO DRY OUT ENOUGH. HOWEVER, A DECENT CHANCE
OF RAIN DOES ARRIVE ESPECIALLY BE EVENING, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT. AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW TRACKS INTO QUEBEC, A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THURSDAY FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN.
CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR NOW APPEAR PRETTY SMALL BECAUSE OF HOW
SMALL THAT WINDOW BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT WILL BE,
BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
AFTER A MILD NIGHT, THURSDAY HIGHS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO GET
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, INTO THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S. POST-FRONTAL AIR
WILL NOT BE AS COLD THIS TIME, HOWEVER, WITH FORECAST HIGHS OF
50S-NEAR 60 FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S-MID 50S SATURDAY. ONE REASON
FOR THE LESS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, IS GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL KEEP OUR PATTERN
UNSETTLED AS DISTURBANCES PASS WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STALLED WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOW CIGS TO SYR, RME, AND ITH
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY VFR SOUTH. SYR AND RME WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE LOW IFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z WITH POTENTIAL TO
LINGER TO 12Z BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND HELP RAISE
CIGS.
A MARINE LAYER PUSHING IN THIS EVENING TRIES TO BRING MVFR CIGS
TO AVP WITH A LOW CHANCE AT BRIEF IFR BUT WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS, DOWNSLOPING OFF THE POCONOS SHOULD HELP KEEP CIGS HIGHER.
THE MVFR CIGS FROM THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO
BGM SO MVFR CIGS WERE ADDED FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER THE REGION. RME AND SYR WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MVFR TO FUEL ALT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR MOST SITES. OTHERWISE ELM WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH CEILINGS STARTING TO FALL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR TO START, RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS(LOW CONFIDENCE)
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...AJG/ES
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