933
FXUS61 KBGM 300802
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
402 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL END ABRUPTLY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES BY. TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER, FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
400 AM UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY HELPING THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO PUSH NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES, SOUTHERN
TIER AND BUTTING UP TO THE POCONOS IN NEPA. ONSHORE FLOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY WILL TEND TO
HOLD THE FRONT BACK FROM PASSING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT, ANOTHER DAY WITH A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION...EXCEPT THIS TIME ORIENTED MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING AS DRAMATIC A DIFFERENCE AS
YESTERDAY, BUT LOOKING AT 60S FOR THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA
WITH A LOW-MID 50S POCKET IN SULLIVAN, WAYNE AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES. TRIMMED TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WITH A BLEND OF
NBM 10TH PERCENTILE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNY BUT THEN SHOULD WANE TO MORE ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AT ANY TIME, WITH
MORE WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING TONIGHT.
MONDAY BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WITH SPC PLACING US IN A SLGT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPE ONLY LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL STRUGGLE UNDER
COPIOUS CLOUD COVER. VALUES OF 150-250 J/KG WILL PROBABLY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME STOUT SHOWERS OR LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR SPORTING 40-60 KTS BEING VERY
CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING ANY UPDRAFT. DOWNBURST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF ANYTHING SEVERE, BUT WE'RE GOING TO
HAVE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION FOR THE ELUSIVE "SHOWERNADO" GIVEN
HELICITY VALUES NORTH OF 300 SHOWING UP IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
BGM, AVP AND MSV. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MANY OF OUR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES APPROACHING 70.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
400 AM UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING. LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PA AND THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE AFTER
SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
IN THIS PERIOD BUT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME JUST RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN
THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT, AND A
QUICK PASSING SHORTWAVE WITH COLD, NORTHWEST FLOW PRESENT WILL KICK
OFF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
AS TEMPERATURES COOL AROUND FREEZING AND MOISTURE IS SHALLOW BELOW
THE DGZ. OTHERWISE, SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT QUITE MILD AND NOT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A
DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH. TEMPERATURES TANK INTO THE
20S AND 30S MONDAY NIGHT, AND BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILLS
DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BUT
WILL BE CUTOFF BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CALMER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THEY WILL START OUT BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 MPH EXPECTED EARLY ON. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS, SO DESPITE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, TUESDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WINDS WILL BE CALMER SO WIND CHILLS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO MUCH LOWER THAN THE TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
400 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH FOR A DRY START TO
WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA BY WEDNEDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN SWEEP THROUGH ON
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MOST
GUIDANCE THEN HAS THE FRONT EXITING THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET START TO THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS QUICK TO MOVE IN FOR POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER WET WEEKEND.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT THEN CONDITIONS
TREND WARMER WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO
THE 60S AND 70S. AFTER A MILD THURSDAY NIGHT, MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS IN PLAY THIS MORNING WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE REGION. STARTING WITH THE BEST
NEWS...KAVP SHOULD HAVE DOMINANT VFR WEATHER FURTHEST SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WITH SOME MVFR FLICKERING IN AND OUT OF THE AIRSPACE
FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER SUNRISE TODAY. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH AREAS OF IFR AND ALTERNATE TO
AIRPORT MINIMUMS ALL OVER THE PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. THE
FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE DAY, SO THERE SHOULD
BE IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SCT-BKN CEILINGS AFTER ROUGHLY 15Z-18Z.
KRME PROBABLY MAKES IT ONLY TO MVFR BEING CLOSEST TO THE
BOUNDARY. MORE SHOWERS AND LOWERING CEILINGS RETURN THIS
EVENING. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR WITH SOME
VARIABILITY AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR TO START, RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS(LOW CONFIDENCE)
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...JAB
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