601
FXUS61 KBGM 301745
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL END ABRUPTLY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES BY. TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER, FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
930 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTHERN
CNY. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL AS THE WARM FRONT HAS
FINALLY BEGAN TO PUSH BACK NORTH WITH A STUBBORN MARINE
LAYER/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HELD UP EAST OF I-88/81.
630 AM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST.
400 AM UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY HELPING THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO PUSH NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES, SOUTHERN
TIER AND BUTTING UP TO THE POCONOS IN NEPA. ONSHORE FLOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY WILL TEND TO
HOLD THE FRONT BACK FROM PASSING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT, ANOTHER DAY WITH A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION...EXCEPT THIS TIME ORIENTED MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING AS DRAMATIC A DIFFERENCE AS
YESTERDAY, BUT LOOKING AT 60S FOR THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA
WITH A LOW-MID 50S POCKET IN SULLIVAN, WAYNE AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES. TRIMMED TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WITH A BLEND OF
NBM 10TH PERCENTILE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNY BUT THEN SHOULD WANE TO MORE ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AT ANY TIME, WITH
MORE WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING TONIGHT.
MONDAY BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WITH SPC PLACING US IN A SLGT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPE ONLY LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL STRUGGLE UNDER
COPIOUS CLOUD COVER. VALUES OF 150-250 J/KG WILL PROBABLY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME STOUT SHOWERS OR LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR SPORTING 40-60 KTS BEING VERY
CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING ANY UPDRAFT. DOWNBURST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF ANYTHING SEVERE, BUT WE'RE GOING TO
HAVE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION FOR THE ELUSIVE "SHOWERNADO" GIVEN
HELICITY VALUES NORTH OF 300 SHOWING UP IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
BGM, AVP AND MSV. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MANY OF OUR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES APPROACHING 70.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND LONGER THAN
MODELED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 30'S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A
CHILLY START WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION
IN THE 20'S. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO BRING DOWN SOME 20 MPH GUSTS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. IF SUFFICIENT DRYING
OCCURS, CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD WITH
AFTERNOON RH'S LIKELY BEING LOWER THAN MODELED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALREADY BE SURGING THROUGH THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVENTHOUGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONLY WARM INTO
THE 40'S DURING THE DAY THEY SHOULD RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-50 KNOT LLJ. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE
LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL. WE LOOK TO
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS STILL AROUND. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
GET INTO THE 60'S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CHECK UP LATER
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE REGION IS PRESENT WHICH WOULD GET US A RAIN FREE DAY OR TWO
AT SOME POINT. RESULTANT TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS SO STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO OUR NBM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40'S AND 50'S. RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK
EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME EITHER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH REGIONS OF NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR VIS AND CIGS BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING IN WITH
MORE SURFACE OBS DROPPING TO MVFR SO A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED TO
ALL TERMINALS TO TIME THEIR PASSAGE THROUGH.
TONIGHT, LLWS DEVELOPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TILL AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MOST OF THE NIGHT SO TERMINALS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR.
TOMORROW MORNING, THERE IS BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS RANGE FROM 15Z TO 20Z SO
THEY WERE NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE
WITH THE TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND STRATUS, MAINLY AFFECTING
SYR, ITH, AND BGM
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR TO START, RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS(LOW
CONFIDENCE) WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...AJG/JAB
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG
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