399
FXUS61 KBGM 302256
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL END ABRUPTLY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES BY. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER, FOLLOWED BY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
630 PM UPDATE...
WE ARE ALMOST FULLY ENGULFED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S IN THE FINGER LAKES AND TWIN TIERS. WINDS IN THE
MOHAWK CONTINUE TO BE MORE EASTERLY, WHICH IS ADVECTING IN
COLDER AIR FROM EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD WIN OUT OVER THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT, PUSHING TEMPS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE.
WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN, GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THEM OFF TO OUR NW AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTERACTS
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO. OUR CWA SHOULD SEE
AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN PA, BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WYOMING VALLEY, TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS. POPS WERE ON TRACK
WITH RADAR AND CAM GUIDANCE SO THEY WERE NOT UPDATED.
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TOMORROW CONTINUES, WITH MUCH OF OUR AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO
ENTER OUR NW COUNTIES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, SPREADING SE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT CURRENTLY LOOK
TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81
TOMORROW. SKIES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SURFACE HEATING
POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEST OF I-81. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SOLID CAP AROUND 700MB, WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IF
CLOUDS DO NOT ALLOW THE SURFACE TO WARM ENOUGH TO BREAK THIS
CAP. THE FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG ENOUGH FORCING TO BREAK THE CAP,
AND WITH 50-60KTS OF BULK SHEAR TO WORK WITH, A QLCS SHOULD
FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. A BRIEF QLCS TORNADO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA INTO THE
CATSKILLS WHERE HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME TURNING AND SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY.
310 PM UPDATE...
WITH RIDGING IN PLACE MOST OF THE REGION IS SEEING SOME BREAKS
OF SUN WHILE THE FINGER LAKES UP INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY IS
SEEING SOME INTERMITTENT RAIN. GIVEN THAT ASOS STATIONS UNDER
THE RAIN ARE REPORTING 9,000 FOOT CEILINGS, THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF DRYING OF THE PRECIPITATION. STATIONS THAT ARE GETTING
RAIN ARE ONLY REPORTING A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN ON THE LOWER END WITH THE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED OBSERVED AMOUNTS. A MARINE LAYER IS HELD UP BY THE
POCONOS AND CATSKILLS WITH AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SEEING COOL WEATHER WITH LOW STRATUS.
TONIGHT, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
REGION INTO NORTHERN NY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A STRONG
850 MB LLJ WILL ALSO AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SUPPORT ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. GIVEN GOOD
STABILITY IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND NOT TOO MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, NO HAIL OR STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
TOMORROW, THE SURFACE FRONT HAS SPED UP WITH MOST MODELS
SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
RATHER THAN THE AFTERNOON. STILL, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEPA INTO THE CATSKILLS OF NY WITH
50 TO 60 KNOTS OF SHEAR. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG IT MID TO LATE MORNING.
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS DO HAVE SOME TURNING WITH HEIGHT THOUGH
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT, STORMS WILL GROW
UPSCALE FAST INTO A LINE RATHER THAN ANY DISCREET CELLS. ALONG
THIS LINE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUST AND A SMALL CHANCE AT A QLCS TORNADO, ESPECIALLY IN
NEPA WHERE THERE IS THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND LONGER THAN
MODELED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 30'S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A
CHILLY START WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION
IN THE 20'S. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO BRING DOWN SOME 20 MPH GUSTS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. IF SUFFICIENT DRYING
OCCURS, CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD WITH
AFTERNOON RH'S LIKELY BEING LOWER THAN MODELED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALREADY BE SURGING THROUGH THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVENTHOUGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONLY WARM INTO
THE 40'S DURING THE DAY THEY SHOULD RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-50 KNOT LLJ. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE
LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL. WE LOOK TO
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS STILL AROUND. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
GET INTO THE 60'S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CHECK UP LATER
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE REGION IS PRESENT WHICH WOULD GET US A RAIN FREE DAY OR TWO
AT SOME POINT. RESULTANT TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS SO STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO OUR NBM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40'S AND 50'S. RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK
EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME EITHER.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH REGIONS OF NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR VIS AND CIGS BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING IN WITH
MORE SURFACE OBS DROPPING TO MVFR SO A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED TO
ALL TERMINALS TO TIME THEIR PASSAGE THROUGH.
TONIGHT, LLWS DEVELOPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TILL AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MOST OF THE NIGHT SO TERMINALS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR.
TOMORROW MORNING, THERE IS BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS RANGE FROM 15Z TO 20Z SO
THEY WERE NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE
WITH THE TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND STRATUS, MAINLY AFFECTING
SYR, ITH, AND BGM
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR TO START, RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS(LOW
CONFIDENCE) WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page