111
FXUS61 KBGM 310803
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
403 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
KICKOFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY
BUT COLDER AIR WILL BE QUICK TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. ANOTHER WARM UP
IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
400 AM UPDATE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT, STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO
THE REGION AND HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO 60S AND 70S. THIS FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS EARLY, WARMER CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP AT MANY
LOCATIONS, BUT THAT LOOKS TO ERODE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND DOWN
INTO NEPA. NORTHWARD, THE CAP HOLDS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE TIMING OF STORMS AS THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE HIGHER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO BECOME
UNSTABLE. MODELED MLCAPE IS 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN THE AREAS WHERE THE
CAP ERODES. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE 40 TO 50 KTS, ENOUGH FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE IN
PLAY. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND WITH CAPE EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE, LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP
ENHANCE SHEAR, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SLIGHT CURVES IN
HODOGRAPHS ARE SEEN IN SOME SAMPLE POINTS IN NEPA, SO BRIEF
SPIN UPS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ALL LINES UP WELL WITH THE
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK. THE SLIGHT RISK WAS REDUCED TO THE WYOMING
VALLEY, POCONOS, AND CATSKILLS. THIS IS WHERE THEY MAINTAIN A 2%
TORNADO RISK AS WELL. THE MARGINAL RISK WAS ALSO MODIFIED TO
ONLY COVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SUSQUEHANNA REGIONS
EVERYWHERE ELSE IS UNDER GENERAL THUNDER DUE TO THE EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
THE STORMS AND FRONT WILL BE QUICK TO DEPART, EXITING THE
REGION BY AROUND SUNSET. LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH COLD, NORTHWEST FLOW PRESENT
OVER THE REGION. WHILE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
CNY, CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR POCKETS OF SLEET AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
20S AND 30S TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING, THOUGH IT MAY BE REDUCED TO JUST FLURRIES. NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS OBSERVED. A
DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THIS SHOULD CUT
OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION BY MIDDAY. IT MAY FEEL
SHOCKINGLY COLD TOMORROW AS FORECASTED HIGHS ARE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO
THE 30S AND 40S. IT WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WINDS
GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE ARE SLIGHT CONCERNS FOR CONDITIONS
BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO
AROUND 30% FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, AND COULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN
FORECASTED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND LONGER THAN
MODELED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 30'S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A
CHILLY START WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION
IN THE 20'S. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO BRING DOWN SOME 20 MPH GUSTS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. IF SUFFICIENT DRYING
OCCURS, CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD WITH
AFTERNOON RH'S LIKELY BEING LOWER THAN MODELED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALREADY BE SURGING THROUGH THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVENTHOUGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONLY WARM INTO
THE 40'S DURING THE DAY THEY SHOULD RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-50 KNOT LLJ. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE
LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL. WE LOOK TO
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS STILL AROUND. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
GET INTO THE 60'S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CHECK UP LATER
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE REGION IS PRESENT WHICH WOULD GET US A RAIN FREE DAY OR TWO
AT SOME POINT. RESULTANT TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS SO STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO OUR NBM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40'S AND 50'S. RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK
EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME EITHER.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL
12-14Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 40 TO 45 KTS AT
2000 FT AGL. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY TO
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS START OUT SOUTHERLY BUT WILL THEN BE NORTHWESTERLY BY
TONIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES WERE TOO LOW AT MOST
TERMINALS TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE FRONT WILL KICK OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER FOR THIS ROUND, SHOWERS WERE ADDED
AT ALL TERMINALS. AVP HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF A STORM WERE TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT
THE TERMINAL. CEILINGS FALL INTO THE MVFR AND FUEL ALT
CATEGORIES LATER THIS MORNING. SOME BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF VFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS THEN SETTLE IN
MVFR/FUEL ALT LATE TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND STRATUS, MAINLY AFFECTING
SYR, ITH, AND BGM
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR TO START, RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page