967
FXUS61 KBGM 311845
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
245 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
KICKOFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY
BUT COLDER AIR WILL BE QUICK TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. ANOTHER WARM UP
IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
200 PM UPDATE...
OVERALL WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING SO SURFACE
BASED CAPE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT IS MOVING INTO
THE FINGER LAKES CURRENTLY AND THERE IS NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG
IT SO FAR. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NEPA, THERE IS MORE INSTABILITY SO STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM OR SO.
625 AM UPDATE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES TO BETTER
MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND 60S
THOUGH A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS IN N. ONEIDA AND CATSKILLS ARE
STILL IN THE 40S. A DRY SLOT IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BUT THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING. SKY COVER WAS
UPDATED TO TRY AND CAPTURE THIS. AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT, THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
400 AM UPDATE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT, STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO
THE REGION AND HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO 60S AND 70S. THIS FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS EARLY, WARMER CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP AT MANY
LOCATIONS, BUT THAT LOOKS TO ERODE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND DOWN
INTO NEPA. NORTHWARD, THE CAP HOLDS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE TIMING OF STORMS AS THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE HIGHER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO BECOME
UNSTABLE. MODELED MLCAPE IS 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN THE AREAS WHERE THE
CAP ERODES. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE 40 TO 50 KTS, ENOUGH FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE IN
PLAY. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND WITH CAPE EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE, LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP
ENHANCE SHEAR, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SLIGHT CURVES IN
HODOGRAPHS ARE SEEN IN SOME SAMPLE POINTS IN NEPA, SO BRIEF
SPIN UPS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ALL LINES UP WELL WITH THE
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK. THE SLIGHT RISK WAS REDUCED TO THE WYOMING
VALLEY, POCONOS, AND CATSKILLS. THIS IS WHERE THEY MAINTAIN A 2%
TORNADO RISK AS WELL. THE MARGINAL RISK WAS ALSO MODIFIED TO
ONLY COVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SUSQUEHANNA REGIONS
EVERYWHERE ELSE IS UNDER GENERAL THUNDER DUE TO THE EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
THE STORMS AND FRONT WILL BE QUICK TO DEPART, EXITING THE
REGION BY AROUND SUNSET. LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH COLD, NORTHWEST FLOW PRESENT
OVER THE REGION. WHILE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
CNY, CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR POCKETS OF SLEET AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
20S AND 30S TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING, THOUGH IT MAY BE REDUCED TO JUST FLURRIES. NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS OBSERVED. A
DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THIS SHOULD CUT
OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION BY MIDDAY. IT MAY FEEL
SHOCKINGLY COLD TOMORROW AS FORECASTED HIGHS ARE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO
THE 30S AND 40S. IT WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WINDS
GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE ARE SLIGHT CONCERNS FOR CONDITIONS
BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO
AROUND 30% FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, AND COULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN
FORECASTED.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
230 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND PUSH EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO, CANADA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY SOME
SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. SOUTH WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY, 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME, MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY, SO
EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER RH VALUES IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, RH SHOULD INCREASE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHEN MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION, AS ANY DELAY COULD BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JUST WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT, LATEST
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 2K
FEET, HOWEVER WINDS AT AND JUST BELOW 2K FEET ARE FORECAST AT 55
TO 60 KNOTS. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
ENDS UP BEING, THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FINGER LAKES REGION. BESIDES THE
WINDS, WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CNY CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
245 PM UPDATE
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY. SHOWER CHANCES HAVE
LOWERED SOME WITH THIS UPDATE, BUT STILL HIGH-END POPS IN THE
MORNING, BUT DECREASING BELOW 50% CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY AND IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, WOULD EXPECT TO SEE POPS CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH
FOLLOWING UPDATES FOR THURSDAY THIS TIME FRAME.
AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IN TIME,
THE LATEST DATA POINTS TO AN UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEEKEND.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, WITH AMPLE MOISTURE, WILL EJECT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY,
SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT WILL INITIALLY
BE MILD OVER THE WEEKEND, A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE OVERHEAD
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN ALL OF NEXT WEEK, AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SYR AND RME. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT MAY DROP VIS TO MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 20Z AT RME AND SYR.
ELM, ITH, AND BGM WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CLOSER TO 20Z
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT THUNDER IS UNLIKELY.
AVP WONT SEE THE FRONT TILL CLOSER TO 0Z WITH BETTER CHANCES AT
SOME THUNDER BIT IT HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE ISOLATED.
TONIGHT, LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CNY WITH MVFR
CIGS. ITH HAS A SMALL CHANCE AT SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN FREEZING
DRIZZLE BETWEEN 4Z AND 8Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO LEFT OUT OF
TAFS THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AVP SEES VFR FIRST WITH CLOUDS LINGERING AT
SYR AND RME THE LONGEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR TO START, RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MM
AVIATION...AJG
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