054
FXUS61 KBGM 311906
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
306 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NE PA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD TODAY BUT COLDER AIR WILL BE QUICK TO FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. ANOTHER WARM UP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
305 PM UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION BY
AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO WARM BUT STARTING TO
GET SOME 70S IN NEPA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING THAT THERE IS STILL CAPPING IN PLACE
PREVENTING STORMS AND LOOKING AT RADAR, SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING
TO GET MUCH OVER 10,000 FEET SO INDICATIVE THERE IS STRUGGLE TO
GET MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. NEPA IS REALLY THE ONLY PLACE
THAT HAS ANY REAL CHANCE AT GETTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY AS THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN THOUGH DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED A
LITTLE LOWER THAN FORECAST. CAPPING IS LOWER OVER THE WYOMING
VALLEY SO WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE NOT TILL CLOSER TO SUNSET, A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE.
RIGHT NOW GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE LCLS HAVE
GOTTEN OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO CLOSER TO 5C/KM WHICH WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
VELOCITY SO THAT ALSO LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL LATER TODAY FOR OUR AREA.
TONIGHT, SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP GENERATE SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. CLOUD
DEPTHS ARE PRETTY SHALLOW AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
GET TO NEAR -10C SO THE LACK OF CLOUD ICE MAY MEAN PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR
NOW AS LAKE INDUCED CAPE WOULD BRING AIR PARCELS UP TO -10C OR
COOLER SO ODDS ARE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ICE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
TOMORROW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FAST AND WITH THE SHALLOW
CLOUD DEPTH AND HIGH SOLAR ANGLE, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY THE
MID TO LATE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND STRONG SOLAR
HEATING, TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES. VERY DRY AIR
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY MIX DOWN SO DEW
POINTS WERE LOWERED BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THERE IS NOT MUCH
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THE DRY AMD BREEZY WEATHER MAY BE ENOUGH TO
DRY OUT FINE FUELS AND LEAD TO SOME BETTER IGNITION AND FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL THOUGH COOL TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT EVAPORATION.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
230 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND PUSH EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO, CANADA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY SOME
SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. SOUTH WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY, 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME, MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY, SO
EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER RH VALUES IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, RH SHOULD INCREASE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHEN MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION, AS ANY DELAY COULD BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JUST WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT, LATEST
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 2K
FEET, HOWEVER WINDS AT AND JUST BELOW 2K FEET ARE FORECAST AT 55
TO 60 KNOTS. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
ENDS UP BEING, THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FINGER LAKES REGION. BESIDES THE
WINDS, WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CNY CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
245 PM UPDATE
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY. SHOWER CHANCES HAVE
LOWERED SOME WITH THIS UPDATE, BUT STILL HIGH-END POPS IN THE
MORNING, BUT DECREASING BELOW 50% CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY AND IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, WOULD EXPECT TO SEE POPS CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH
FOLLOWING UPDATES FOR THURSDAY THIS TIME FRAME.
AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IN TIME,
THE LATEST DATA POINTS TO AN UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEEKEND.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, WITH AMPLE MOISTURE, WILL EJECT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY,
SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT WILL INITIALLY
BE MILD OVER THE WEEKEND, A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE OVERHEAD
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN ALL OF NEXT WEEK, AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SYR AND RME. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT MAY DROP VIS TO MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 20Z AT RME AND SYR.
ELM, ITH, AND BGM WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CLOSER TO 20Z
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT THUNDER IS UNLIKELY.
AVP WONT SEE THE FRONT TILL CLOSER TO 0Z WITH BETTER CHANCES AT
SOME THUNDER BIT IT HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE ISOLATED.
TONIGHT, LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CNY WITH MVFR
CIGS. ITH HAS A SMALL CHANCE AT SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN FREEZING
DRIZZLE BETWEEN 4Z AND 8Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO LEFT OUT OF
TAFS THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AVP SEES VFR FIRST WITH CLOUDS LINGERING AT
SYR AND RME THE LONGEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR TO START, RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...AJG
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