632
FXUS61 KBGM 010654
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
254 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
MORNING CLOUDS, FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SOME MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY TO MORE CLOUDS AND LATE
DAY RAIN MOVING IN, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES
SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON THURSDAY, BACK INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY TO END THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
235 AM UPDATE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND -10C THROUGH
THE DAY. AFTER STARTING OFF IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IT
WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS. MODEL GUIDANCE AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE TRENDING
WINDIER TODAY AS WELL, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS
25-35 MPH EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING DRY AIR WITH SKIES LIKELY
BECOMING SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON
AREAWIDE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
COLD, LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
INTERMITTENT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT, BUT
LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-20S FOR
MOST AREAS (WITH SOME UPPER 10S POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS, AND ONEIDA COUNTY).
WEDNESDAY STARTS OFF DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
AS A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS MOVE INTO CNY/NE PA. IT WILL BE HIGH
CLOUDS WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH
THICKER CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL TAKE TIME TO MOISTEN UP, AND SHOULD SLOW THE ARRIVAL TIME
OF THE RAIN DOWN SOME. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID-40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON DUE TO AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. GUSTS COULD EASILY
REACH 30-40 MPH TOWARD SUNSET, AS 850MB WINDS REACH 60-70 KTS.
WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IF CONFIDENCE
IN SEEING HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUES TO INCREASE; ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION OF OF NY. IT WILL ALL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WIND ENERGY IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE BELOW THE INVERSION WHICH LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ABOUT
2000 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS WEDNESDAY
EVENING OVER THE AREA, WITH THE 00Z GFS STILL SHOWING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS (AND THEREFORE POTENTIAL SURFACE GUSTS) OF 40-45 KTS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
230 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND PUSH EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO, CANADA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY SOME
SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. SOUTH WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY, 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME, MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY, SO
EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER RH VALUES IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, RH SHOULD INCREASE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHEN MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION, AS ANY DELAY COULD BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JUST WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT, LATEST
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 2K
FEET, HOWEVER WINDS AT AND JUST BELOW 2K FEET ARE FORECAST AT 55
TO 60 KNOTS. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
ENDS UP BEING, THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FINGER LAKES REGION. BESIDES THE
WINDS, WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CNY CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
245 PM UPDATE
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY. SHOWER CHANCES HAVE
LOWERED SOME WITH THIS UPDATE, BUT STILL HIGH-END POPS IN THE
MORNING, BUT DECREASING BELOW 50% CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY AND IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, WOULD EXPECT TO SEE POPS CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH
FOLLOWING UPDATES FOR THURSDAY THIS TIME FRAME.
AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IN TIME,
THE LATEST DATA POINTS TO AN UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEEKEND.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, WITH AMPLE MOISTURE, WILL EJECT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY,
SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT WILL INITIALLY
BE MILD OVER THE WEEKEND, A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE OVERHEAD
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN ALL OF NEXT WEEK, AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE AREA IN THE COLDER NW FLOW PATTERN.
THESE CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN ABOUT 012-030 FT AGL (MVFR) WILL
LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE
LATEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREAWIDE FOR THE
AFTERNOON, EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
EXPECT GUSTS WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
22-28 KTS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING, DROPPING BELOW 10KTS BY AROUND SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR TO START, RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY...MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BECOME MAINLY VFR BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTION.
FIRE WEATHER
THERE WILL INITIALLY BE PLENTY OF MORNING CLOUDS AROUND WITH RH
VALUES HOLDING IN THE 50S TO 60S THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.
THEN, DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT
AND GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE
COLD TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING TO 35-45 DEGREES, SURFACE RH
VALUES SHOULD REACH 25-35% FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
RATHER LOW OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA; BETWEEN 0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT UP TO
AN INCH FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND HALF INCH ACROSS PIKE
COUNTY).
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD ALSO FEATURE RATHER
LOW RH VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE RAIN
STARTS TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER INTO THE LOWER
50S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND VALLEYS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE ANY
FIRE WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...MJM
FIRE WEATHER...MJM
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