958
FXUS61 KBGM 301657
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1257 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE
TODAY. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. TONIGHT IS LOOKING COLD WITH LOWS FALLING BACK DOWN TO
AROUND FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THURSDAY IS LOOKING MUCH
WARMER AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
630 AM UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER WAS UPDATED TO KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AROUND A
FEW HOURS LONGER IN CNY BASED OFF OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ELSEWHERE IT IS ALREADY STARTING TO BREAK UP, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
240 AM UPDATE...
WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, BREEZY
NW WINDS HAVE BEEN DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 40S AND
UPPER 30S. SOME THIN LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME PASSING CIRRUS AT TIMES. VERY DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX DOWN ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR IN
THE MID MORNING. DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WERE LOWERED TO WELL
BELOW THE NBM MEAN AS MIXING SHOULD DROP THEM TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BASED OFF OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MOST OF THE AREA SAW
AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN SO FUELS WILL BE PRETTY WET AND
GREENUP IS REALLY RAMPING UP. WHILE HUMIDITIES GET LOW THIS
AFTERNOON, FIRE SPREAD AND IGNITION CONCERNS ARE LOW.
TONIGHT IS LOOKING CHILLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND WINDS BECOME CALM. THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE
THAT SLOWS RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME BUT MOST LIKELY TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET. IF SKIES CAN BE COMPLETELY CLEAR,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOWS WILL GET CLOSE TO THE AFTERNOON DEW
POINT TEMPERATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN THURSDAY WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER QUICKLY WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
BY THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BUT
MOST RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY STABLE ATMOSPHERE, WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
MOHAWK VALLEY, WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WARM AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY LOOK TO RIPPLE THROUGH
THE OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY. SW FLOW CONTINUES, WITH TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
AS GOOD AS IT DID YESTERDAY, WITH CAPE VALUES IN CNY AROUND
200-600 J/KG, BUT NEPA CURRENTLY HOLDS ON TO CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000-1500J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-40KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP
AS ONE WOULD LIKE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO, CAPE PROFILES ARE
LONG AND SKINNY, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE UPDRAFTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT SHOULD KEEP THEM WEAK. A WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL
ACT LIKE A PSEUDO COLD FRONT AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. IF A STRONGER STORM WAS TO
DEVELOP, THE TARGETED AREA WOULD BE IN NEPA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THIS AREA HAS THE HIGHEST CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS PARTS OF OUR AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER, WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE FORECAST, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE AREA.
MORE RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
ON SATURDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS
BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US, TILTING FROM POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES. GUIDANCE SHOWS A NICE SWATH OF RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION AS GUIDANCE IS STILL SORTING OUT HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER
TROUGH TILTS FROM POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE
BIT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, BUT MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
STABLE SO THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
VARY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S, WHILE THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AND
NEPA IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING 2 VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE HAS
A VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH A STRONG
CUT OFF LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS KEEPS US DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE EURO DEVELOPS A
STRONG CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US, WHICH PUMPS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA, BRINGING CONTINUOUS RAIN SHOWERS INTO MID
WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. BECAUSE OF THIS LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS, NBM GUIDANCE WAS USED WITH NO
ADJUSTMENTS MADE. THIS PUTS SLIGHT TO CHANCE SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG AT
ELM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MPK
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