238
FXUS61 KBGM 301754
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL BRING CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THURSDAY IS LOOKING MUCH WARMER AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY EVENING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
150 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED, BUT EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IT IS STILL QUITE
COOL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. TONIGHT IS LOOKING CHILLY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED FOR A
PORTION OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, TO INCLUDE THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND ALSO LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA COUNTIES IN PA. A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FINGER LAKES REGION FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8
AM, BUT NE PA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST, IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY. ALSO, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT HIGH
CLOUDS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THAT MAY SLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT STILL THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY IN THE FINGER LAKES EVEN WITH THE
HIGH CLOUDS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES RECOVER
QUICKLY, WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INCREASES CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, BUT MOST RAIN WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE EARLY EVENING WEST
OF THE I81 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOUTH IN NE PA, SO THERE WILL BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
150 PM UPDATE...
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS FROM THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD ONWARD. NBM IS STILL HIGHLIGHTING HIGH END POPS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE GFS AND NAM 12Z RUNS NOW ARE
MORE DELAYED WITH THE SHORTWAVE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WHAT
IS KNOWN IS THAT THERE WILL BE A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
REGION THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY. SW RETURN FLOW WILL
PUSH PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARLY STATIONARY, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS. HOWEVER, PWATS ARE NOT
OVERLY ALARMING AT THIS TIME, SO ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS
LOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY STABLE ATMOSPHERE, WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
MOHAWK VALLEY, WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WARM AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY LOOK TO RIPPLE THROUGH
THE OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY. SW FLOW CONTINUES, WITH TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
AS GOOD AS IT DID YESTERDAY, WITH CAPE VALUES IN CNY AROUND
200-600 J/KG, BUT NEPA CURRENTLY HOLDS ON TO CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000-1500J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-40KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP
AS ONE WOULD LIKE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO, CAPE PROFILES ARE
LONG AND SKINNY, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE UPDRAFTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT SHOULD KEEP THEM WEAK. A WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL
ACT LIKE A PSEUDO COLD FRONT AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. IF A STRONGER STORM WAS TO
DEVELOP, THE TARGETED AREA WOULD BE IN NEPA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THIS AREA HAS THE HIGHEST CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS PARTS OF OUR AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER, WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE FORECAST, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE AREA.
MORE RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
ON SATURDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS
BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US, TILTING FROM POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES. GUIDANCE SHOWS A NICE SWATH OF RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION AS GUIDANCE IS STILL SORTING OUT HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER
TROUGH TILTS FROM POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE
BIT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, BUT MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
STABLE SO THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
VARY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S, WHILE THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AND
NEPA IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
150 PM UPDATE...
MODELS HAVE SO MUCH SPREAD AT THIS POINT WITH A COMPLETE 180
BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS. GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WHILE THE EURO PARKS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WITH
LIKELY RAINSHOWERS EVERY DAY. ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY SHOW A HUGE
RANGE IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MORE THAN A 30 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOME OF THEM ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DUE TO
THE HUGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS NO REASON TO STRAY FROM
NBM AT THIS POINT, WHICH BASICALLY GIVES A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (40%) COMING ON
TUESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING 2 VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE HAS
A VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH A STRONG
CUT OFF LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS KEEPS US DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE EURO DEVELOPS A
STRONG CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US, WHICH PUMPS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA, BRINGING CONTINUOUS RAIN SHOWERS INTO MID
WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. BECAUSE OF THIS LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS, NBM GUIDANCE WAS USED WITH NO
ADJUSTMENTS MADE. THIS PUTS SLIGHT TO CHANCE SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG AT
ELM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ015>018.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...MPK
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