349
FXUS61 KBGM 010724
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
324 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVED IN EARLIER THIS EVENING AND HAS
REALLY SLOWED THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES
ARE STILL IN THE 40S AND WITH SUNRISE APPROACHING IN A FEW
HOURS AND MORE CLOUDS STREAMING IN, IT WILL BE HARD FOR THE
TEMPERATURES TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST. RIDGING BUILDS IN
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION THOUGH THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANY RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UNDER THE
RIDGE KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPED. OVERNIGHT, AS THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE AND ADVECTS
IN BETTER MOISTURE, SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH THE
500 MB SHORTWAVE HELPING TO TRIGGER THE STORMS. FOR THIS REASON,
THE OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE CHANGED TO COVERAGE RATHER THAN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GRIDS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AND EVEN A LITTLE MUGGY WITH
DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. WITH GREENUP
AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION, ITS POSSIBLE THE DEW POINTS
COULD GO UP A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MARGINAL CAPE THAT DEVELOPS, MOSTLY BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS ALSO OVER 30 KNOTS IN
MOST OF THE MODELS SO IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP, THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
150 PM UPDATE...
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS FROM THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD ONWARD. NBM IS STILL HIGHLIGHTING HIGH END POPS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE GFS AND NAM 12Z RUNS NOW ARE
MORE DELAYED WITH THE SHORTWAVE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WHAT
IS KNOWN IS THAT THERE WILL BE A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
REGION THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY. SW RETURN FLOW WILL
PUSH PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARLY STATIONARY, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS. HOWEVER, PWATS ARE NOT
OVERLY ALARMING AT THIS TIME, SO ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS
LOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY STABLE ATMOSPHERE, WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
MOHAWK VALLEY, WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WARM AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY LOOK TO RIPPLE THROUGH
THE OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY. SW FLOW CONTINUES, WITH TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
AS GOOD AS IT DID YESTERDAY, WITH CAPE VALUES IN CNY AROUND
200-600 J/KG, BUT NEPA CURRENTLY HOLDS ON TO CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000-1500J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-40KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP
AS ONE WOULD LIKE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO, CAPE PROFILES ARE
LONG AND SKINNY, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE UPDRAFTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT SHOULD KEEP THEM WEAK. A WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL
ACT LIKE A PSEUDO COLD FRONT AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. IF A STRONGER STORM WAS TO
DEVELOP, THE TARGETED AREA WOULD BE IN NEPA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THIS AREA HAS THE HIGHEST CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS PARTS OF OUR AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER, WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE FORECAST, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE AREA.
MORE RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
ON SATURDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS
BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US, TILTING FROM POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES. GUIDANCE SHOWS A NICE SWATH OF RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION AS GUIDANCE IS STILL SORTING OUT HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER
TROUGH TILTS FROM POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE
BIT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, BUT MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
STABLE SO THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
VARY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S, WHILE THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AND
NEPA IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
150 PM UPDATE...
MODELS HAVE SO MUCH SPREAD AT THIS POINT WITH A COMPLETE 180
BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS. GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WHILE THE EURO PARKS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WITH
LIKELY RAINSHOWERS EVERY DAY. ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY SHOW A HUGE
RANGE IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MORE THAN A 30 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOME OF THEM ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DUE TO
THE HUGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS NO REASON TO STRAY FROM
NBM AT THIS POINT, WHICH BASICALLY GIVES A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (40%) COMING ON
TUESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING 2 VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE HAS
A VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH A STRONG
CUT OFF LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS KEEPS US DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE EURO DEVELOPS A
STRONG CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US, WHICH PUMPS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA, BRINGING CONTINUOUS RAIN SHOWERS INTO MID
WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. BECAUSE OF THIS LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS, NBM GUIDANCE WAS USED WITH NO
ADJUSTMENTS MADE. THIS PUTS SLIGHT TO CHANCE SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. CLOUDS
MOVING IN ALOFT HAVE ENDED THE CHANCE OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
ELM. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE IN TOWARDS 6Z TONIGHT WITH
SOME PROB30S ADDED FOR AIRPORTS THAT MAY SEE SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS. RME AND SYR COULD SEE SOME RAIN
AS WELL BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH RAIN. WINDS PICK UP ALOFT OVER
SYR AND RME AS WELL WITH SOME LLWS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015>018.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...AJG
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